Voter turnout is the big key to what will happen and what arrangement there will be in the next National Assembly. This was stated on the air of NOVA by the sociologist from the "Trend" agency Evelina Slavkova. According to her, it is still not clear what the turnout will be.
"We measure that 3.2 million adult Bulgarian citizens will go out to vote, but this turnout may increase because there are people who may decide to go out to vote at the last minute. The higher the activity we have, the higher the threshold for entering the next National Assembly will be, which may prevent smaller political parties from finding a place there," she said.
Slavkova commented that high activity traditionally helps new political entities that are participants in the elections, as they often have a much larger periphery to mobilize, compared to political parties that are already part of the political scene.
"It will be extremely crucial whether we will have a 5-party, 6-party or 7-party parliament - this will determine how easily and what kind of coalition can be formed in the next National Assembly," she said.
"We see political parties that have a real chance of jumping the 4 percent barrier. They would certainly enter into a conversation about forming a government, so it would be easier for Rumen Radev's party if there was a fragmented parliament. At the same time, the more fragmented the parliament is, the more it would take from it," the sociologist also said.
"There could certainly be a higher turnout than what the sociological agencies measure. There are between 15% and 18% of people who decide at the last minute who to vote for, which is a high share. In these shares, there are people who decide in front of the ballot box who to vote for," Slavkova also pointed out.