"This year: fewer babies than ever in recent history" - this is the headline of the Serbian tabloid "Blic". According to the newspaper, there are fewer and fewer newborns in Serbia, and more and more elderly people. At the same time, the average life expectancy is decreasing - in 2024 in Serbia it will be only 76 years, or about five years less than the EU average.
Serbia clearly has huge problems at both ends of the individual demographic cycle - at the beginning (birth) and at the end (death). There are also problems in between: strong emigration is accelerating population decline and aging. On this issue, the Serbian media are exceptionally in agreement with those in neighboring countries.
Here are a few examples of headlines from other countries in the region: "All of Croatia will weigh on the shoulders of the elderly", "The demographic crisis in Bulgaria could turn into a demographic catastrophe", "The decline in the population in Romania is causing concern". With each new census, the media, experts and politicians make apocalyptic predictions.
Aging population, low birth rate, little immigration
In fact, forecasts for all countries in Southeast Europe point to a significant decline in population in the coming decades. But whether the predictions come true, the question arises whether the noisy debate is not exacerbating the problem rather than contributing to its solution.
It is clear that nowhere else in Europe, with the exception of the Baltic states and war-torn Ukraine, is the population declining as rapidly as in the southeastern part of the continent. If in 1990 the region - from Slovenia in the north to Greece in the south - had about 62 million people, today they are 53 million.
Bulgaria, for example, had almost nine million inhabitants at the end of communist rule. Today they are less than seven, and according to the UN, in 2050 there will be about five million people left in the country. The reasons for this are easy to explain: more people die every year than are born, and this has been going on for years. In addition, significantly more people are leaving the region than immigrating to it, although this dynamic is also slowly changing. One consequence is that the population as a whole is aging.
Majority opposes immigration
It is therefore no wonder that demographic fears are spreading among the population. According to a 2025 survey, three-quarters of respondents in Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Serbia expressed serious concerns about the aging of the population - especially against the background of the grossly inadequate state social benefits in the countries in question.
In Bulgaria, two-thirds of respondents believe that older people lived better under socialism than they do today. But while concerns about population decline are widespread, the most obvious countermeasure, namely immigration, is categorically rejected by the majority, the survey also shows.
Governments in the region recognize demographic developments as a serious problem. Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković has described it as a matter on which Croatia's survival depends. Since 2024, his government has even had its own Ministry of Demography and Immigration, although the minister responsible, who is a representative of the nationalist party "Fatherland Movement", understands immigration primarily as the return of ethnic Croatian emigrants and their descendants.
Birth rate stimulation is not effective enough
In other places, state institutions are also dealing with demographic development. In Serbia, for example, the Ministry of Family Welfare and Demography is responsible. There, however, they rely mainly on financial incentives for having children, which are often accompanied by rhetoric presenting having children as a patriotic duty. So far, this pro-natalism has not been particularly effective, and the explanation for this lies in historical experience: communist regimes tried this half a century ago, but failed.
Financial incentives can neither stop the changing cultural environment nor solve the structural problems that are the cause of the large-scale emigration, especially among young people. We know from studies that, in addition to higher wages in Western Europe, emigration is primarily encouraged by widespread corruption, nepotism and a lack of prospects. Only the elderly remain. Governments could focus on ensuring that people live longer and healthier lives, but this is a harder sell than birth bonuses.
A change in policy and attitudes is needed
As for the population decline, the example of Austria shows that there is a solution: although the birth rate is also low in the Alpine country, its population is expected to grow by up to 16 percent by 2025, according to forecasts. The reason for this is immigration. But as the study cited shows, societies in Southeast Europe are even more opposed to immigration than in Austria. Especially when the newcomers are people who look different from the locals.
The question is how long this can be maintained in an atmosphere in which politicians and the media paint pictures of the disappearance of the nation and in which we are witnessing the depopulation of entire regions. Without a change in policy and attitudes, the demographic vicious circle cannot be broken: the more the population decreases, the greater the fears for the future. Namely, confidence is needed to motivate people to stay and accept immigrants.
Immigration is not the only way to address demographic challenges: the countries of South-East Europe are characterized by low employment rates, which means that there is a large untapped potential of the local workforce. Governments could make efforts to increase average life expectancy so that people can stay healthy longer as they age and thus work longer. And this is not about some sophisticated space technology, but about the fact that we need a policy that puts aside loud speeches and clientelism and starts focusing on improving concrete living conditions.
The author, Prof. Dr. Ulf Brunbauer, is a historian, a specialist in South-East Europe, and the scientific director of the Leibniz Institute for East and South-East European Studies in Regensburg. He also leads a research project funded by the "Volkswagen" Foundation, examining demographic fears in Southeast Europe and ways to overcome them.