Comment by Paulina Shishkova
At the end of 2025, the social, economic and political environment in Bulgaria is uncertain. It is in the process of transformation and rethinking. Political forces are currently very flexible and since they are not enslaved to certain ideologies, social circles, state policies, they are slightly moving away from their previous positions and starting to look for new paths, new fans and voters. What is common in all parties, movements, coalitions and so on is their goal – to survive and be present again on the political scene and especially in parliament. The environment in which they have to swim is also common. The international situation is murky and it is difficult for one to orient oneself as to what is happening, who is with whom, what are the positions of the powerful countries, who is advantageous to support a given political force in our country. Due to the unclear global situation, the parties are silent for now and are listening, identifying different options for transformation in order to survive. The same applies to individual countries. It can be said that a global political impotence has occurred at the moment.
What is the situation in our country? Parties and political forces are intensively analyzing, with the help of experts who prophesy hourly on television, how and where to position themselves in both the domestic and the external, international situation. Although some analysts defend a firmly defined party configuration, flexible politicians still do not want to take firm positions. They are driven by the thought - nothing is known yet.
The protest of 1.12. shook GERB's confidence that it should go hand in hand with Peevski. The multitude of slogans and exclamations against Peevski made the leader of our largest party think about changing course. In it, the sprouts of a new “new beginning” appeared – a gradual breakaway from Peevski, who is disliked by the people, especially the young and educated, to put it mildly. It is true that the process of breaking away began very quickly, but that is how it is in GERB – they do not have firm foundations and are ready to unite with anyone who likes them in the external – and internal political situation. They look around for the president, for the PP-DB, for some new modern party, sent down from above by the Great Power, they do not dare to contradict them, much less confront them, they do not defend the DSP – NN, although they were good friends with him a few days ago. They are waiting for the outcome of the war in Ukraine to decide what foreign policy orientation to adopt and which party or person to lean on and start courting.
DPS – NN is further strengthening its positions among minorities – Roma and Bulgarian Turks, realizing that it cannot rely on other parties and their electorate. But we all know how great its electoral power is, especially in villages and small towns.
BSP and ITN realize that in all elections they are on the edge of the electoral border, so now, more than ever, they are thinking, thinking, how to most effectively play their cards to enter the future parliament. ITN are easier – with a big concert in Sofia and abroad Slavi Trifonov will secure the majority needed for the minimum threshold, and then he will join and form a coalition with the strongest party and thus secure managerial positions even in the new distribution of forces. BSP will unite all its wings and branches in the name of entering the parliament under the slogan of protecting the interests of its people.
The other parties remain in their old positions – either enter, like Vazrazhdane, or fight with their last forces to reach the coveted threshold of 4%, like “Velicie“ and “Mech“.
Nothing can be said about the president's party, because perhaps it has not yet been conceived and it is not known who its parents will be. For now, it is only being talked about and the ground is being tested.
PP-DB will continue to rely on the young protesters, the solid Sofia electoral core, part of the intelligentsia and, most of all, the people's hatred of GERB and MRF - NN, but they will not receive much support, because their initial supporters still cannot forget their vile betrayal.
Finally, let me assume that the composition of the parliament will be the same after new elections (+/- the president's party) and with the same distribution of forces. Too bad about the gunpowder! Still, we must try to get out of the swamp.