Damascus has marked 1 year since Assad's overthrow. “Al Jazeera” is broadcasting the celebration live with a speech by Sharaa, Syria's interim president, and fireworks. Many salutes, armed men participate in a sort of parade, and women, veiled, wave their hands with the “victory” sign.
At this celebration, the slogan with a message to the Syrian Kurds and their organization, the Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, is “if not with politics, then with the sword”.
Damascus is saying in plain text that “if they don't come to their senses with politics, we will come to their senses with the sword”. There are slogans like "Be patient, Jazeera", waiting only for instructions. "Let Jazeera be free" and "Syria is one homeland" are repeated. But in some streets there are slogans like "Death to the SDF". The reaction of the Syrian Kurds is that "hostile slogans were uttered by elements connected to the Ministry of Defense in Damascus, and this is the mentality of the Baath regime". Apparently the shadow of the Assad family with its Baath has not disappeared from Syria.
A day before, convoys of Turkish armed forces descend on Mambij. Rumors are circulating about a new operation with armored Turkish forces. Tensions are rising, with the reason being the delay in the integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, and the mutual buildup of troops in Deir ez-Zor. The issue of the Syrian Kurds' autonomy in the territories they control has not been resolved. The new Turkish forces in Afrin and Aleppo are causing panic among the SDF.
The visit of the then Chief of General Staff of the Turkish Army, Bayraktaroglu, on December 5-6 fueled speculation about an expected attack, but it is officially said that this is ”nothing more than a routine activity”. However, the overall picture shows that a possible new operation may be inevitable. Armored vehicles have also been spotted in Afrin, Ras al-Ain and Aleppo, and their direction is towards Mambij. In Damascus, information is being spread that government armed forces are also heading towards Deir ez-Zor.
The claims are that Ankara has armed these forces again. In response, the SDF has also deployed in Deir ez-Zor. The information is that Damascus will launch a military operation, and Turkey will support it. The intelligence services are leaking information that the Syrian Kurds have been given 25 days to finalize the process of merging into the Damascus army. So far, the Syrian Kurds have not fulfilled the March 10 agreement to integrate into the Shaaraa army. They are asserting their demands for their own sovereign rule within a decentralized Syria. Ankara emphasizes that “the Syrian government will launch an operation to protect its own unity and integrity, and Turkey will support”.
And to top it all off, Israel is trying to “inflame things”. Turkey does not allow the PKK to join the Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, and then merge with Sharaa's army. But it does not deny that 2,000 Turkish Kurds from the PKK have joined the SDF. However, Turkey continues to train, now a second group, Sharaa's forces and is constantly arming them. Bayraktaroglu met with his colleague, the then Chief of General Staff of the Syrian Army, Abu Kasra, and inspected the joint Turkish-Syrian operations center. He also met with Sharaa, which is a sign that the situation is worrying.
Sharaa himself announced in a speech in Doha that Syria will hold elections within 4 years after a 5-year transition period. It is clear that a lot of time is needed to stabilize the government in Damascus. But he notes that there is progress in negotiations with Israel and boasts that there is an improvement in electricity supplies. He found Damascus with 1.5 hours of electricity per day, and now there were 12-14 hours. He claims that “Syria is moving towards the best possible conditions” and this despite over 1,000 Israeli airstrikes on Syrian territory and hundreds of violations of the country's territorial integrity.
He reports that Syria is working with international actors to guarantee Tel Aviv's withdrawal from territories it occupied on 8.12. 2024. He places his hopes on an agreement from 1974, i.e. over 50 years old, between Syria and Israel, but does not specify who signed it on behalf of Damascus. But now the US is also participating in the negotiations with Israel.
Tel Aviv wanted to have a depoliticized zone, but Sharaa asks who will protect it. It is important for him to point out that no Syrian government has managed to reach full agreement with all components of the country's population during a transitional period. It sounds like an excuse that at this stage it does not control all the territories with the different ethnic communities in Syria. Problems are constantly arising that are unacceptable, but Damascus is unable to bring to justice the perpetrators of the incessant military attacks between ethnic communities and radical groups, which creates an impression of insecurity and instability in the country.
But Sharaa confidently asserted in Doha that “Syria is building a future of a governance model based on institutions, not individuals”. He also said that “the government will be entered only on merit”. Quite conditional statements, but for him it is more important that the negotiations with the US allow for the lifting of the country's sanctions in order to restore the country more quickly. He does not forget to blame the previous rulers for the state of Syria and repeats that “Assad's legacy is heavy”. He has formed commissions to investigate crimes during the transitional period, including in Suwayda, where the Druze, supported by Israel, revolted. Already under Sharaa's rule.
The Foreign Minister in Damascus, Shaibani, raises the issue of building trust and emphasizes that “we will not accept any approach that seeks territorial advantage”. The Golan Heights are part of the negotiation process, Shaibani says, and claims that "Turkey and the US are on a common trend". Whatever that means. But for his colleague in Ankara, Hakan Fidan, "Turkey's policy on Syria has a price". After Assad, Turkey had introduced an "open door policy" and efforts were made to bring order to Syria and Gaza. But there would be no negotiations with new occupiers.
In fact, the issue with the SDF really lies within the framework of US-Turkish relations. They have always had differences of opinion on the issue of the Kurds. In this case in Syria. It is claimed that now there has been a convergence of positions. The Syrian Kurds were offered an agreement with mutual respect, trust and joint governance, a clear commitment to their rights and even mediation by Turkey.
It seems that either the so-called Kurdish issue, or are solutions being sought through a cascade of promises and vague agreements that have been well-known for decades. At least in Turkey. And now Ankara wants Damascus to hand over some Kurdish fighters in leading positions, and Sharaa promises to negotiate their amnesty. For his part, Shaibani insists not to dwell on this topic and “to leave this stage behind us”. So that “we don't get a new Afghanistan”. This time in Syria.
But Washington is of the opinion that sanctions on Syria will depend on the agreement with the SDF. It is insisted that Damascus provide political space to the Syrian Kurds, i.e. the SDF. Otherwise, the sanctions will be restored. Sharaa has been informed that Washington will regularly monitor the new government in Damascus for 4 years. In exchange for the sanctions. It was not a political gesture, but a “conditional process”.
The conditions for Damascus are not only the fight against terrorist organizations such as “Islamic State”, but also the removal of foreign armed elements from the state structure, avoiding regional adventures and guaranteeing the rights of minorities. Damascus will have to continue cooperation with the SDF and open political space for this structure. For Washington, the principle remains that the SDF is a key element of stability in Eastern Syria. And for Damascus, the easing of sanctions by the US is a breath of fresh air after the severe economic crisis. It is clear that for now things are at a standstill.
Ankara does not accept with enthusiasm that the US has sent new units to Northeastern Syria, where the SDF are. So far, only 20 trucks with military vehicles, fuel tankers, etc. and that around Haneke. Joint exercises are also continuing. For 4 days now. This is considered to be just one step in a broader plan to increase the level of readiness in the region. Secretary of State Rubio has already announced that “Syria has turned a new page and is taking significant steps.
Both Democrats and Republicans in the House of Representatives were in favor of lifting sanctions on Syria, but that Sharaa not return to sectarian violence. There were also conditions to limit the influence of Russia and Iran in the country, as well as to make efforts to find missing American soldiers. Russia and Iran have maintained silent restraint in these statements. Moscow is acting on its own line and has direct contacts with Sharaa.
And in Ankara they are convinced that since the new US national strategy, called the “Trump doctrine”, contains a direct reference to Turkey when discussing Syria, then Trump's doctrine can work in Turkey's favor. This is Syria with the Syrian Kurds, and in the foreign policy of Erdogan's Turkey this region is a priority. Time will tell whether there will really be a Washington-Ankara tandem or whether Syria can become a new Afghanistan. It remains to be seen.