Russian drones and agents are carrying out attacks in NATO countries, and Europe is already doing what would have seemed strange just a few years ago: considering how to hit back, writes "Reuters".
The ideas range from joint offensive cyber operations against Russia and faster and more coordinated attribution of hybrid attacks by quickly blaming Moscow, to surprise military exercises led by NATO.
"The Russians are constantly testing the limits - what is the answer, how far can we go?", said Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže. "A "more proactive response" is needed," she stressed. "And it's not talk that sends a signal, it's action".
Russian drones have flown over Poland and Romania in recent weeks and months, and mysterious drones have caused chaos at airports and military bases across the continent. Other incidents include GPS jamming, incursions by fighter jets and warships, and the explosion of a key Polish railway carrying military aid to Ukraine.
"Overall, Europe and the Alliance must ask themselves how long we are prepared to tolerate this kind of hybrid warfare and whether we should consider a more active stance in this area," said German Defense Secretary Florian Hahn.
Hybrid attacks are nothing new. In recent years, Russia has sent assassins to eliminate political enemies in Britain, been accused of blowing up weapons depots in Central Europe, tried to destabilize the EU by funding far-right political parties, engaged in a social media war, and attempted to overturn elections in countries such as Romania and Moldova.
But the scale and frequency of the current attacks are unprecedented. Globsec, a Prague-based think tank, estimated that between January and July there were more than 110 sabotage and attempted attacks in Europe, mainly in Poland and France, by people linked to Moscow.
"Today's world offers a much more open - indeed, one might say, creative - space for foreign policy," Russian leader Vladimir Putin said at the Valdai conference in October, adding: "We are closely monitoring the growing militarization of Europe. Is this just rhetoric, or is it time to respond?
Russia may view the EU and NATO as rivals or even enemies - former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the Kremlin's Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said last month: "The United States is our adversary." But Europe does not want war with a nuclear-armed Russia and must therefore figure out how to respond in a way that deters Moscow but does not cross the Kremlin's red lines that could lead to open war.
This does not mean shrinking, Sweden's chief of defence, General Michael Klasson, is adamant. "We cannot afford to be afraid and worried about escalation," he said. "We must be tough."
So far, the response has been to strengthen defences. After Russian military drones were shot down over Poland, NATO announced it would strengthen drones and air defenses on its eastern flank, a call echoed by the EU.
Even that infuriates Moscow.
Europeans "should fear and tremble like mute animals in a herd led to slaughter," Medvedev said. "They must be filled with fear, sensing their imminent and painful end".
Shifting gears
Frequent Russian provocations are changing the tone in European countries.
After deploying 10,000 troops to protect Poland's critical infrastructure following the sabotage of a railway line connecting Warsaw and Kiev, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk accused Moscow of engaging in "state terrorism".
After the incident, EU foreign policy chief Kaia Kallas said such threats posed "an exceptional danger" to the bloc and stressed that it must "have a strong response" to the attacks.
Last week, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crocetto criticized the "inertia" on the continent in the face of growing hybrid attacks and presented a 125-page plan for response measures. In it, he proposes the creation of a European Center for Countering Hybrid Warfare - a 1,500-strong cyber force, as well as military personnel specializing in artificial intelligence.
"Everyone needs to review their security procedures," added Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski. "Russia is clearly escalating its hybrid war against EU citizens.".
From talk to action
Despite the increasingly fierce rhetoric, the question remains what a more aggressive response means.
Part of this is due to the difference between Moscow and Brussels - the latter is more constrained by its actions within the rules, says Kevin Limonier, professor and deputy director at the Paris-based think tank GEODE.
"This raises an ethical and philosophical question: Can countries governed by the rule of law afford to use the same tools and the same strategies as the Russians?", he asked.
So far, countries such as Germany and Romania have tightened rules that would allow authorities to shoot down drones flying over airports and military installations.
Meanwhile, national security services can operate in a legal gray area. Allies from Denmark to the Czech Republic already allow offensive cyber operations. Britain reportedly hacked ISIS networks to obtain information about the terrorist group's early drone program in 2017.
Allies need to "be more proactive in cyber-offensives and focus on increasing situational awareness - uniting and coordinating security and intelligence services," Braje said.
In practice, countries could use cyber methods to attack systems critical to Russia's military efforts, such as the Alabuga economic zone in Tatarstan in east-central Russia, where Moscow produces Shahed drones, as well as energy facilities or trains carrying weapons, noted Filip Bryjka, a political scientist and expert on hybrid threats at the Polish Academy of Sciences. "We could attack the system and disrupt its functioning," he said.
Europe must also figure out how to respond to Russia's massive disinformation campaigns with its own efforts inside the country.
"Russian public opinion is somewhat inaccessible," said a senior military official. "We need to work with allies who have a fairly detailed understanding of Russian thinking - that means we need to establish cooperation in the area of information warfare as well."
Yet any new measures "must have the possibility of deniability," said an EU diplomat.
A show of force
NATO, for its part, is a defensive organization and is therefore reserved for offensive operations. "Asymmetric responses are an important part of the conversation, but we will not stoop to the same tactics as Russia," a NATO diplomat said.
Instead, the alliance should prioritize displays of force that illustrate strength and unity, said Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokeswoman and fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank. In practice, that means quickly declaring whether Moscow is behind a hybrid attack and holding military exercises "without warning" on Russia's border with Lithuania or Estonia.
Meanwhile, the NATO-backed Centre of Excellence on Hybrid Threats in Helsinki, which brings together allied officials, "provides expertise and training" and develops "policies to counter these threats", noted Maarten ten Wolde, a senior analyst at the organization.
"There is certainly more to be done on hybrid attacks, such as increasing collective attribution of attacks and ensuring that we show through various means that we are paying attention and can redirect our assets in a flexible way," summarized a senior NATO diplomat.