The growing anti-government unrest in Iran and mounting international pressure are confronting the ruling clerical elites with a crisis of legitimacy that has arisen at the very heart of the Islamic Republic - a crisis that they seem unable to cope with.
The demonstrations that began in Tehran last month have spread to all 31 provinces of Iran, but have not yet reached the scale of the unrest of 2022 - 2023, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after she was arrested for violating the Islamic dress code for women.
The protest movement began in Tehran's Grand Bazaar, where merchants took to the streets to express their dissatisfaction with the sharp devaluation of the local currency, the rial, but now, at this stage of the demonstrations, other people have joined them - mainly young men, replacing the women and girls who played a major role in the protests against Amini's death.
The American news agency “Human Rights Activists“ (HRANA) reported that at least 34 protesters and four security forces were killed, and 2,200 people were arrested during the unrest. Analysts say this is evidence of a deeper disillusionment with the Shiite status quo.
Internet access was cut off across Iran yesterday, and the Internet monitoring organization NetBlocks said the outage continued today. The development comes amid calls from abroad for more protests from Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's last shah, who was ousted in the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
“The collapse is not just of the rial, it is of credibility,“ said Alex Watanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
The authorities are trying to maintain a dual approach to the unrest, saying on the one hand that the economic protests are legitimate and will be met with dialogue, but at the same time using tear gas against some demonstrations and clashing with protesters.
Nearly five decades after the Islamic Revolution, Iran's ruling religious elite is trying to bridge the gap between its own priorities and the expectations of its youth.
“I just want to live "A peaceful, normal life. Instead, they (the rulers) are pushing for a nuclear program, supporting armed groups in the region and maintaining a hostile attitude towards the United States," Mina, 25, from the town of Kuhdesh in western Lorestan province, told Reuters in a telephone interview.
"This policy may have made sense in 1979, but it doesn't today. The world has changed," the unemployed university student said.
PROTESTORS TAKE OVER THE STREETS
A former senior official in the reformist wing of the ruling elite said that the main ideological pillars of the Islamic Republic - from imposing dress codes to foreign policy decisions - were do not resonate with people under 30, who make up almost half the population.
“The younger generation no longer believes in revolutionary slogans – they want to live freely,” he says.
The headscarf rule, which was at the heart of the tension during the protests over Amini's death, is now being enforced selectively. Many Iranian women openly refuse to wear it in public, breaking a tradition that has long been a hallmark of the Islamic Republic.
In the current protests, many of the participants are expressing dissatisfaction with Tehran's support for various militant groups in the region, chanting slogans such as: "Neither for Gaza nor for Lebanon, I give my life only for Iran" to demonstrate their disappointment with the priorities of the ruling party.
Tehran's regional influence has been weakened by Israel's attacks on its allies - such as "Hamas" in Gaza, "Hezbollah" in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and groups in Iraq - as well as by the overthrow of Iran's close ally, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.
In footage shared on "Ex" A video, verified by Reuters, shows protesters in the country's second-most populous city of Mashhad (Mashhad) in the northeast pulling a large flag of the Islamic Republic down from a pole and tearing it apart.
In Tehran's Grand Bazaar, people clashed with security forces, while jubilant demonstrators marched through the streets of Abdanan, a city in southwestern Ilam province, in footage from other videos this week that Reuters also verified.
In footage from the northeastern city of Gonabad, which Reuters could not verify, young men emerged from a seminary mosque to join a large protest crowd, cheering them on in what appeared to be a rebellion against the clerics.
NO EASY WAY OUT FOR IRAN'S SUPREME LEADER
Vatanka of the Washington Institute for Near East Studies says the Islamic Republic's political system has managed to survive the cycles of protests that have periodically erupted against it over the years, by repression and tactical concessions, but he said that strategy has already reached its limit.
“Change seems inevitable; regime collapse is possible, but not guaranteed,“ he said.
In other countries in the region, such as Syria, Libya and Iraq, long-serving leaders have only been toppled by a combination of protests and military intervention.
US President Donald Trump has said he may come to the aid of Iranian protesters if security forces fire on them. “We are fully prepared and ready to act,” he wrote on January 2, without elaborating. Seven months ago, Israeli and American forces bombed Iranian nuclear sites during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, facing one of the most difficult moments in his decades in power, responded by vowing that Iran "will not bow its head to the enemy."
According to the former Iranian official, there is no easy way out for the 86-year-old leader, whose long-standing governance model of creating proxies, evading sanctions and developing missile and nuclear programs appears to be exhausted.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the protests, calling them "a decisive moment in which the Iranian people take their future into their own hands."
In Iran itself, public opinion is divided on whether foreign military intervention is inevitable or even possible, but even the most vocal government critics doubt whether it is desirable.
“Enough is enough. For 50 years, the regime has ruled my country. Look at the result. We are poor, isolated and disappointed,“ said a 31-year-old man from the city of Isfahan in central Iran, who asked not to be named.
When asked whether he favored foreign intervention, he replied: “No. I don't want my country to be subjected to military strikes again. Our people have suffered enough. We want peace and friendship with the world - without the Islamic Republic.”.
Opponents of the Islamic Republic in exile, whose camp is severely fragmented, believe that the moment when they could overthrow the regime may be approaching and are calling for more protests. It is uncertain, however, to what extent they enjoy real support within the country.
Translated from English: Vladimir Arangelov, BTA