The stability of the Chechen Republic, it has been argued for years, is facing its most serious test in decades. Speculation about the health of Ramzan Kadyrov - the region's strongman and a key ally of Vladimir Putin - has reached its peak.
According to the Ukrinform news agency, citing a source in the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Kadyrov is in critical condition in his personal hospital in Chechnya. The agency points out that members of the family clan, including relatives coming from abroad, are gathering around him.
Reports of the Chechen leader's chronic illness - in particular, advanced renal failure and pancreatic necrosis - have changed the tone of conversations in Moscow from "whether" there will be a new leader in Chechnya to "when" the transfer of power will take place and "how".
At a time when Russia's war in Ukraine is entering another critical year, a possible power vacuum in Grozny threatens to destabilize one of the Kremlin's most important domestic bulwarks. This is what Mikhail Khachidze wrote in a commentary for The Times of Israel.
The Decline of a Leader
While official channels in Grozny continue to publish heavily edited footage of Kadyrov training or chairing meetings, independent observers and intelligence sources paint a much darker picture.
Kadyrov’s absence from several key federal-level events in late 2025 and early 2026 has further fueled rumors of frequent hospitalizations in a Moscow hospital.
Even more telling than the medical rumors are the political dislocations. Relations between Kadyrov and President Putin have reportedly cooled after the Chechen leader held informal talks with Middle Eastern monarchies to secure the safety of his family and assets outside Russia, a move the Kremlin sees as a challenge to its own power.
The list of possible successors
The struggle to succeed Kadyrov requires a delicate balance between the loyalty of local clans and Kremlin control. Three main candidates have emerged:
Apti Alaudinov (the Kremlin's favorite): As commander of the Akhmat special forces, Alaudinov gained considerable authority during the war in Ukraine. Unlike other Chechen leaders, he is seen as a "bridge" between the regional elite and the Russian Defense Ministry. His frequent appearances on federal television suggest he is preparing for a broader political role.
Akhmat Kadyrov (the dynastic version): Over the past 18 months, Ramzan Kadyrov has been rapidly promoting his sons. The eldest, Akhmat Kadyrov, has been appointed to various ministerial posts despite his still-frail age (20). This scenario aims to preserve the Kadyrov family's absolute control over the region, but many doubt that the young Akhmat can inspire the same fear and respect as his father.
Magomed Daudov (the inner circle): As the chairman of the Chechen parliament, Daudov, who is known by the nickname "Lord", controls the internal security apparatus. He embodies the continuity of the current system, but he lacks the military charisma at the federal level that Alaudinov possesses.