2026 is here and Europe is under siege. This is stated in a commentary for "Politico" Eurasia Group's European head Mujtaba Rahman.
External pressure from Russia in Ukraine is increasing, China is undermining the EU's industrial base, and the US - now effectively threatening to annex the territory of a NATO ally - is undermining the EU's multilateral rulebook, which looks increasingly outdated in a far more transactional and less cooperative world.
And none of this shows any signs of slowing down.
Indeed, this year the steady erosion of the norms on which Europe has come to rely will only be exacerbated by the bloc's weak leadership - especially in the so-called "E3" countries - Germany, France and the UK.
In the future, Europe's greatest existential risks will stem from transatlantic relations. For the bloc’s leaders, maintaining US interest in the war in Ukraine was the key objective for 2025. And the best possible outcome for 2026 will be a continuation of the ad hoc diplomacy and transactionalism that have characterized the past 12 months. But if new threats emerge in the relationship – particularly over Greenland – that balancing act may prove impossible.
The year also begins with no sign of any concessions from Russia on its demands for a ceasefire or any willingness to accept the terms of the 20-point US-EU-Ukraine plan. The reason is that Russian President Vladimir Putin calculates that Ukraine’s military situation will deteriorate further, forcing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to capitulate to his territorial demands.
I think Putin is wrong—that, backed by Europe, Zelensky will continue to resist U.S. pressure for territorial concessions and instead increasingly attack Russian energy production and exports, in addition to front-line resistance. Of course, this means that Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure will also increase.
However, Europe’s rising military spending, purchases of American weapons, funding for Kiev, and sanctions against Russia—which also target energy revenue sources—could help preserve the status quo of last year. But that’s probably the best-case scenario.