Signs of cracks have emerged in Iran's leadership hierarchy over the war, which the country's leaders see as an existential issue, with divisions emerging between hardliners and more pragmatic factions after disagreements over President Massoud Pezeshkian's pledge not to attack Gulf states.
These divisions within Iran's ruling elite have long remained suppressed under the iron grip of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but his assassination a week ago has brought them to the fore as pressure on Tehran from US and Israeli air strikes mounts.
The ongoing bombings pose a serious threat to the Islamic Republic and have prompted its most ruthless followers, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, to take a greater role in strategy, despite a campaign to eliminate the leadership that has killed many senior commanders.
Sources close to the Iranian leadership, speaking from inside the country, said tensions were beginning to emerge among prominent figures still alive after a series of assassinations in US and Israeli strikes. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. In a sign of growing tensions within the regime, the clergy quickly appointed a new supreme leader, with Mohtabi Khamenei, considered more hardline than his father, being elected as the new Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution.
The hardliners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps quickly demonstrated their control over the decision and their grip on power when the president (Massoud Pezeshkian) announced that the Gulf states would not be attacked and apologized for the previous strikes. On the same day that the Iranian president's statements were made, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps deliberately continued to intensify its shelling of neighboring countries (United Arab Emirates/Bahrain/Kuwait/Qatar), demonstrating the seriousness of the dispute and competition between the two sides (moderates and hardliners).
The election of Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is supported by the Revolutionary Guard and is younger than most of Iran's top leaders, alienated and angered moderates in the regime.
Pezeshkian's apology to the Gulf states for a week of intense attacks on their territory and his promise to limit such attacks provoked a swift and angry reaction from hardliners in the Revolutionary Guard and the religious elite, forcing him to partially backed down.
In one of the most outspoken criticisms of Pezeshkian and a sign of internal divisions, Hamid Rasai, a hardline conservative lawmaker and cleric, took to social media to address the president, saying: “Your position is unprofessional, weak and unacceptable.“
When the president later repeated his earlier statement on social media, he deleted the apology that angered the Revolutionary Guard and other hardliners in an awkward backtracking.
While all key figures in the leadership hierarchy are undoubtedly committed to defending the Islamic Republic and its revolutionary religious system against attacks from the United States and Israel, there are clear divisions over their strategic approach.
Two senior sources said the Iranian leadership has at times exploited differences among hardliners and moderates as a tactical tool in negotiations with the West, but the controversy surrounding Pezeshkian's statement today has exposed real divisions.
Hard-line conservatives close to Khamenei's office, which remains a central point in the leadership hierarchy, said Pezeshkian's comments had angered many senior commanders in the Revolutionary Guard.
Many observers believe the dispute between the Revolutionary Guard and the moderates is likely to escalate in the coming period, potentially leading to internal assassinations of several leaders of the moderate faction. One of the first tasks of the Revolutionary Guard after the cessation of military operations will be to work to oust