With the beginning of spring, intense fighting has resumed in Ukraine. There are signs that Russia is launching a spring offensive. What are the prospects for its success?
In one of the suburbs of Kramatorsk, the Ukrainian military is maintaining a workshop. Two soldiers are currently preparing a ground drone for their next operation - the delivery of food products, ARD reports in its report from Ukraine.
The commander of the unit, Yosip, tells the German publication that this section of the front is difficult. The Russian military is trying to advance in small groups, and the Ukrainians are doing everything they can to stop them.
“There are signs that the Russians have launched a spring offensive. From publicly available sources, we know that the enemy has concentrated a tank unit with the most modern equipment in the direction of Kramatorsk,” says Yosip. He adds that he expects the Russians to become more active once the muddy ground dries up.
Fighting is becoming increasingly intense
The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Oleksandr Syrsky, is already aware that as the weather warms up, Russia will increase pressure at a number of points on the front. The intensity of the fighting is increasing.
“The occupiers are concentrating in the Pokrovsk and Oleksandrivka directions, where the fighting is most often taking place at the moment”, Syrsky wrote on his Telegram channel. “Thanks to the professional and coordinated approach of the Ukrainian soldiers, the enemy's offensive actions have been stopped in a number of directions”, ARD quoted him as saying.
In some sections of the front, the fighting continues with great intensity. According to Syrsky, Russia is forced to regroup its forces.
No prospects for success?
Ukrainian observers also see no chance of success for the Russian spring offensive. According to Oleksiy Melnyk of the Ukrainian think tank Razumkov, Ukraine has managed to thwart preparations for the planned offensive. "Ukrainian defense units have increased the intensity and effectiveness of their attacks on targets 50 or 100 km away. This means that a large part of Russian personnel and weapons are currently being destroyed," Melnik told ARD.
Currently, Russia has practically no opportunity to concentrate offensive forces near the front. According to Commander-in-Chief Sirsky, within a week Russia has lost over 8,700 soldiers - killed and wounded.
Russia occupies new territories
However, military observer Konstantin Mashovets predicts imminent Russian attacks on the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. "They will probably take place in late spring or early summer," Mashovets wrote on Facebook. But the observer does not believe that such an attack would be particularly successful, since the Russians must first capture the city of Liman - something they have not been able to do so far.
Despite the Ukrainian successes, however, Russia continues to occupy new territories. As Ukrainian bloggers from Deep State write (the map of the war in Ukraine - ed.), Russia has captured territories in the southeastern Zaporizhia region. It has also made progress in the Kharkiv region in recent days.
The Ukrainians could have achieved greater successes if they had the necessary means to do so, believes military expert Melnyk, quoted by ARD. In his opinion, the Ukrainian military has too few missiles and medium-range cruise missiles.
The war in Iran - the new challenge
Many observers believe that the problems for Ukraine are caused by the parallel war in the Middle East. The US will inevitably provide Ukraine with fewer weapons, as it itself needs them for the war against Iran.
However, this is not a catastrophe, says Melnik. “Today, more and more Ukrainian defense needs are covered by domestic industry and by the production of our European partners.” Therefore, if weapons from the US are less, this will be an additional challenge, but not a turning point in the war.
In Kramatorsk, Commander Yosip hopes for further military aid from abroad. “There is a shortage mainly in air defense,” he tells ARD. More than four years after the start of the great Russian invasion, the soldiers are exhausted, Yosip notes.
“To be honest, the mood is quite negative.” Most of them were mobilized, they came from civilian life, he explains. "They thought the war would end quickly." Nevertheless, his men will endure and do their job, Josip is confident.