The announced decision of the newly appointed Bulgarian government and Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov to end gratuitous arms supplies to Ukraine has caused a wide and polarized international response.
The turn in Sofia's previous Euro-Atlantic line is interpreted by world analysts as a clear sign of domestic political change under the influence of President Rumen Radev.
The Russian position is characterized by strong approval at the political and media level, but is accompanied by pragmatic skepticism behind the scenes regarding the real economic effect of the decision. Russian state media and publications such as the newspaper “Kommersant“ emphasize the fact that Sofia opposes the general line of Brussels. Moscow admires the Bulgarian Ministry of Defense's calls to "sit down at the negotiating table" and stop military support, which coincides with Russian diplomatic theses.
Moscow welcomes the rhetoric of the new Prime Minister Rumen Radev and Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov. Sofia's claims that "the war will not be decided on the battlefield" and that "Ukraine has enough weapons, but it lacks people" are taken by Moscow as a direct admission of the failure of the Western strategy. The Bulgarian government's calls to immediately "sit down at the negotiating table" are used by Russian propaganda as evidence that the EU and NATO themselves are already tired of war.
For the Kremlin, the most valuable element of Sofia's decision is the political signal. Russian analysts emphasize that Bulgaria is the first country on NATO's Eastern flank to officially end the gratuitous packages. Russian media emphasize that Sofia is entering into conflict with Brussels' general line, which helps Moscow argue its thesis that European support for Kiev is cracking.
Despite the official satisfaction, Russian military experts and intelligence analysts remain realistic. It is well known in Russia that the industry continues to work. Dimitar Stoyanov's decision only affects the gratuitous aid from the army's warehouses. The Bulgarian military-industrial complex (MIC) continues to produce and sell weapons on a commercial basis through intermediaries.
Which, according to the Russian side, means without a doubt that Bulgarian Soviet-standard shells will continue to reach the Ukrainian front through market mechanisms.
Russian expert circles note that while the rhetoric of the official and Radev-appointed cabinets is moderate and calls for diplomacy, de facto Bulgarian ammunition factories have not stopped exports to third countries.
TASS notes that the Bulgarian government does not intend to limit commercial supplies of weapons manufactured in Bulgaria to Ukraine. And it emphasizes the words of Defense Minister Stoyanov: “Bulgaria will not transfer weapons and ammunition from its army warehouses to Ukraine, but it will not stop sales to the Bulgarian industry. Whether the Bulgarian industry will sell will be its decision, not the Ministry of Defense“.
Leading Ukrainian media outlets such as “Ukrainska Pravda“ described the decision as a confirmation of the pro-Russian course of the new government in Sofia. Ukraine's official position is that the country does not receive free (gratuitous) military assistance from Bulgaria, and bilateral relations in the field of defense develop entirely on a commercial basis.
The statement was made at a briefing by the spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Georgy Tykhy. It came immediately after the decision to terminate the gratuitous supplies of weapons from the Bulgarian army's reserves.
At the moment, Ukraine does not rely on donations from Bulgaria's state reserves. Relations are moving along the lines of an international trade partnership between Ukrainian and Bulgarian defense companies. A large part of Bulgarian military production is purchased from third-party partner countries (such as the United States, Great Britain, Poland and the Czech Republic) and then redirected to Kiev.
According to Kiev, this cooperation provides serious opportunities for the development of the Bulgarian military-industrial complex. Bulgarian factories and enterprises receive significant financial income, orders and an economic boost. In return, Ukraine receives vital and necessary for its defense equipment and ammunition.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry used the occasion to emphasize that Kiev has never avoided peace talks. According to Tykhy, Ukraine has repeatedly offered talks, but Moscow is the country that refuses to sit at the negotiating table. Kiev expressed official gratitude to Bulgaria for the opportunity to implement such joint trade projects and expressed strong hope that industrial cooperation in the defense sector will continue to function in the same way in the future.
The refusal of the new Bulgarian government to provide gratuitous military aid to Ukraine has caused serious political repercussions and concern in the European Union, although Sofia is avoiding open confrontation with Brussels.
A main point of criticism is the fact that Bulgaria did not notify its EU and NATO partners in advance of this decision. This has raised questions in Brussels about Sofia's predictability as an ally in the common European security policy. Analysts and European publications such as Politico point out that this move undermines the EU’s overall efforts to exert strong pressure on Russia. However, Brussels notes that the new government has refrained from vetoing common European packages of sanctions or financial aid for Kiev. Bulgaria was a key supplier of Soviet-style ammunition in the early stages of the war.
The EU is concerned that Sofia’s official political distancing could increase pressure on other Eastern European countries such as Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic. Statements by the Bulgarian defense minister that the EU should play a role in peace talks are met with skepticism in Brussels, as the official line of the Union is that the terms of negotiations should be determined entirely by Ukraine.
Commentators write that Sofia is effectively “writing off the battlefield victory for Ukraine“. There is quiet discontent in Brussels over the fact that Bulgaria did not notify its EU allies in advance of this sharp turn. Diplomats remind that Sofia's sharp turn comes just after the EU approved billions in new financial support for Kiev's defense.
The Alliance sees the decision as a retreat from common commitments to collective security on the Eastern flank. NATO partners express concerns that Sofia is voluntarily withdrawing from the core of decision-making for common European defense and modernization of weapons. It is pointed out that the unilateral decision could damage the credibility of Bulgaria as a predictable ally.