Belarusian-Ukrainian relations have reached an escalation - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has issued an ultimatum to Alexander Lukashenko. He demanded that drone transponders located in the border regions of Belarus and used by Russia to coordinate attacks on Ukrainian territory be removed within a week.
"I think one week will be enough for him to remove this. If he doesn't do it, we will," Zelensky said. For many in Belarus, the words of the Ukrainian president may sound threatening, especially considering that just recently in Ukraine there was talk of 500 targets on Belarusian territory that could be hit by the Ukrainian military. But can Ukraine really fulfill its threat?
Zelensky asks Lukashenko to remove the repeaters
As Volodymyr Zelensky specified, we are talking about four repeaters located in the Gomel and Brest regions. "It was thanks to this equipment that strikes were carried out on the Zhytomyr, Rivne and Volyn regions, on our energy sector, on our railways, on cities and villages," he said.
Relays are technical means that help guide combat and reconnaissance drones, Belarusian military expert Vadim Kabanchuk explained to DW: "Usually these means are deployed on high ground - these are directional antennas that allow the movement of drones to be guided."
Kabanchuk is sure that Ukraine has the technical capabilities to destroy the relays. “If Ukraine can already reach beyond the Urals with its drones, it could cover the entire territory of Belarus.“
Relays can be disabled not only by a physical strike
Military expert and former employee of the Security Forces of Ukraine Ivan Stupak explains that the relays are indeed a problem for Ukraine. “They help the drones to navigate in space - where they are, at what height and at what speed, so as not to deviate from the course.“
At the same time, Ivan Stupak notes that the physical destruction of the relays through a direct attack is not the only option for the Ukrainian authorities. “They also have another trump card - they can disable the relays through a hacker attack. Such an attack already took place in the winter of 2026, when Ukraine neutralized these repeaters on the territory of Belarus in this way, without a forceful operation and without attacks on Belarusian territory.“
Ukraine can attack not only the repeaters
If Ukraine still decides to strike Belarus, the target may not only be the repeaters. The commander of the Ukrainian Drone Control Forces, Robert Brody, said that the military has already identified “500 potential targets“ on the territory of Belarus.
Vadim Kabanchuk also draws attention to the fact that Zelensky mentioned not only the repeaters. The Ukrainian president said that Belarus remains one of the key suppliers of oil products to Russia and called on Minsk to stop these supplies. In addition, Zelensky has repeatedly noted that Belarus supports Russian troops with its military-industrial complex, its refineries and its logistics infrastructure.
"He did not say that a decision was made to strike at all this infrastructure, since in fact this would affect the entire territory of Belarus. At the same time, I do not think that it will come to that, because this would already be a full-scale war. At the moment, this is neither in the interests of Ukraine nor in the interests of Belarus," Kabanchuk notes.
Ukrainian military expert Stupak, in turn, assures that Ukraine does not aim to attack civilian objects. “Firstly, it is not civilian objects that are at war with us, and secondly, this way we can turn a large part of Belarusian citizens against us.“ His opinion is that we are talking about military targets - military units, airports, military facilities. At the same time, he does not rule out the possibility of attacks on political objects - television, the State Security Committee, the Ministry of Internal Affairs. “This could lead to 500 targets.“
Nobody has an interest in an escalation between Belarus and Ukraine
Both Stupak and Kabanchuk say that nobody has an interest in such an escalation. “In this situation, we will become the aggressors and the aid we receive may be reduced or stopped. We may lose more than we could gain in a hypothetical attack,“ says Stupak.
Kabanchuk, for his part, suggests that the escalation may continue if the Belarusian regime does not change course, does not enter into a dialogue with society, international partners and Ukraine. “Escalation would be a bad scenario that would only be in Moscow's interest. Neither Ukraine nor the European partners - no one wants the conflict zone to increase. Lukashenko also understands that Belarus will not have many opportunities to repel potential attacks from Ukraine. Therefore, the interests of everyone except Moscow coincide in that this situation should be resolved peacefully“, Kabanchuk points out.
Author: Alexandra Boguslavskaya