Surprises outside the first three candidates in the presidential elections are unlikely, believes political scientist Stoycho Stoychev. He expects low turnout and emphasizes that the mobilization of party cores and the behavior of vacillating voters will be decisive.
“From this point of view, it seems to me that there is unlikely to be any surprise beyond the first three“, Stoychev told the Bulgarian National Radio. His comment was made at the end of September, when the election campaign was still underway.
According to him, the turnout in the presidential vote will be quite low. The political scientist predicts that the number of voters may be at least one million fewer than in the parliamentary elections in April 2026.
Latest polls outline the leading pairs
Data from recent sociological surveys show a similar picture. According to “Alpha Research“ Iliyana Yotova and Kiril Valchev receive 41.1% support, and Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev - 28.3%. The survey was conducted between October 18 and 20 among 1,000 adult Bulgarian citizens.
The “Measure“ survey also puts Yotova and Valchev in first place with 43.4%, followed by Gyurov and Kandev with 28.9%. Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin are third with 10.2%. The survey was conducted between October 8 and 19 among 1,009 adult citizens.
According to “Trend“ the gap between the first two pairs narrowed at the end of the campaign, but the ranking remained the same. Yotova and Valchev have 45.9%, and Gyurov and Kandev - 27.8% among those who declared their intention to vote. The survey was conducted between October 4 and 20 among 1,002 people.
Activity remains the main unknown
Stoychev pointed out that the lack of public sociological data earlier in the campaign may have been related to close results between some of the candidates and the low willingness to participate in the vote. According to him, the low turnout may change the ratio between the individual presidential candidate pairs, but does not make a breakthrough by a candidate outside the leading group likely.
The presidential elections will be held on October 25. If necessary, there will be a second round, and the final result will depend not only on the support declared in the surveys, but also on the actual mobilization on election day.
Sources: bnrnews.bg, bntnews.bg