The presidential campaign started boringly, and the incidents in the Black Sea changed its course. Europe is facing deepening social tension, demographic problems and uncertainty about the future, while transatlantic relations are changing under the pressure of Donald Trump's policies. What are the consequences for Bulgaria and Europe and how real are the dangers of a new major war? Here is what Prof. Dimitar Denkov, a lecturer at Sofia University, shared with Lili Marinkova in the “FACT“ studio and the “Conversation“ show.
- Prof. Denkov, we will talk about both the Bulgarian election campaign and its specificities, as well as the social tension in a number of European countries. Let's start with the presidential elections in our country. It seems to me that there were no clear and important issues related to the presidential vote. The campaign was quite boring until the incidents in the Black Sea attracted public attention. How do you explain this?
- The campaign itself seems to me to be quite sluggish from all sides, perhaps because the winner seems clear. The sociological agencies that published their surveys indicate a significant lead for Iliyana Yotova over the following candidates. The situation of the Kostadinov-Volgin couple, which some define as extremely nationalistic, is also particularly interesting.
- Would you define it this way?
- Not quite. This pair is special because it relies on an electorate that can be both Russophile and Bulgarophile, as well as left-right, if we can use that definition. In addition, the very function of the president in Bulgaria is rather symbolic and his powers are not that great. This is already felt by the people.
- However, Iliyana Yotova also has the advantage that behind her stands the legacy of the previous president. Is this a shadow, or rather something constructive?
- I would say that in Bulgarian folklore there are different shadows - some are good, others not so much. In this case, I think that this shadow is rather supportive for now. This will continue until the positive expectations associated with “Progressive Bulgaria“ and Radev's rule are exhausted. If the elections were a little later, for example in January or February, the result might not seem so categorical. Some changes in public attitudes are already being felt, but the time until the elections is too short.
- Is it possible for compromising materials to change the result?
- I don't think they will be of decisive importance. Various cases and accusations have already been used - from "Petrohan" to drones and other scandals. Such topics influence a relatively narrow circle of people. If the opponents of Yotova or Radev wanted to use the "Petrohan" case, for example, they had the opportunity to do so two or three years ago, when information about it began to emerge. Now he is reappearing in the public sphere, but I am not convinced that he will turn the election situation around.
- To what extent can one rely on sociological surveys and the media to measure public attitudes?
- Trust in the media is very low, including traditional media. When election debates begin, many people switch to another channel or simply show no interest. Radio also has limited influence, and the print press has long ceased to be the serious public factor it once was. Today, a large part of public attitudes are formed through Internet platforms and social networks, including TikTok. There are also groups that spread compromising material and extract various details from candidates' biographies, but I do not think that this necessarily has a decisive influence.
- So what makes Iliana Yotova such a strong candidate?
- She has had a long-standing presence in Bulgarian political life. She has been known to the public since the time she was a television personality, and subsequently went through various political structures, including her long-standing presence in the European Union. Recently, she has been adhering to a relatively moderate political language, which can hardly be defined as extremely Russophile or extremely Europhile. However, her greatest advantage is that she is currently serving as president and is actually participating in the political life of the country. The other candidates do not have the same position.
- However, the liberal sector is placing a strong emphasis on the attitude towards Putin and Russia. Whether the candidates have condemned the Russian actions categorically enough, whether they have stated that the drones found are Russian - this seems to be turning into a kind of political test. How do you view this?
- There have already been allegations that the drones are Russian, although the details of the parts found are yet to be clarified. There will probably be additional information, but I do not think that even proving the Russian origin of the drones will significantly change attitudes. A large part of Bulgarian society perceives the war as a clash between two competing geopolitical forces - the Euro-Atlantic camp and those who are closer to Russia or support Russophile positions.
- But a more unpredictable factor has also appeared in the international situation - the behavior of the American administration. There is talk of a world in which the United States, China and Russia will once again be the main great powers that determine the direction of international relations. How does this affect Europe?
- This creates a very special situation. Donald Trump's statements and the tension around him, including calls for a change of political leadership in Ukraine, show that the international situation is changing. There are also internal processes in Ukraine itself that further complicate the picture. All of this draws attention to broader issues that often remain in the background - including the processes in the Middle East and their consequences for Europe and the rest of the world.
- I would like to focus specifically on the social tensions in Western Europe. I maintain contacts with people in France, Italy, Spain and Germany, and from my conversations with them I am left with the impression that the situation is becoming increasingly difficult. When important energy supplies are limited, and the war in the Middle East leads to a sharp increase in the price of oil and fuels, this affects not only industry, but also people's daily lives. What could the consequences be?
- When such processes affect both the economy and everyday life, the consequences are felt in all spheres of life. In Bulgaria, we may not fully understand the scale of the problem, because our country is not as gasified as Germany and other countries in Central and Western Europe. There, the dependence on energy supplies is much more pronounced.
When energy prices rise, this also puts a strain on social systems. In France, for example, there is a developed system of taxes, benefits and subsidies that support the poorer sections of the population. But when costs rise sharply and the state's ability to compensate people is limited, discontent builds up. Thus, economic problems can turn into a wider social revolt.
- So these protests are not only for economic reasons, but also for deeper social contradictions?
- Yes, the problems have been accumulating for years. In some Western European countries, there are large communities of people whose families have lived there for several generations, but whose origins are different from those of the majority. In France, as a former colonial power, there are significant Muslim communities. This is a systemic problem that does not arise today. About twenty years ago, there were serious manifestations of social tension. When economic uncertainty, high prices and difficulties in the social system are added to these long-standing contradictions, the risk of new conflicts increases.
- You say that in France we are already talking about the third generation of migrants. What will happen to the fifth and sixth generations? Will these processes not also be observed in Bulgaria?
- Similar processes are observed, strangely enough, in our country, although they are not yet so clearly expressed. After 20 years, however, the picture may be different. The birth rate in Bulgaria is low, and some communities are growing. It is possible that over time the demographic ratio will change significantly.
The emergence of more affluent or middle-class people of Syrian, Iranian and Iraqi origin is already visible in the big cities, especially in Sofia. If you walk around the center of Sofia and other big cities, you will notice a new type of urban environment and young people, some of whom are settling here with their families. Bulgaria is still a kind of transit point to Western Europe and the European Union, while in the EU itself these processes have been developing for 20-30 years.
This also has political consequences. In some Western European countries, left-wing parties are nominating leaders with migrant backgrounds. In Great Britain and Germany, there are already visible changes in the composition of society. People whose parents or ancestors came from other countries were born and raised in Europe, speak the language and know the culture of the country in which they live. For example, in Berlin there are political representatives of Turkish origin who are fully integrated into German society and implement social policies aimed at the poorer classes.
In Germany, there are also serious debates about housing policy and the measures through which the state can provide affordable housing for people with lower incomes. Some of these groups are descendants of the so-called guest workers who arrived decades ago, while others are the result of more recent migration waves. All this leads to significant ethnic and cultural changes that also have political consequences.
- Let's go back to the protests in France. At first, they were associated with young people, students and teachers. To what extent is the religious, including Islamist, factor present in them? And to what extent are children from migrant families in a disadvantaged position?
- Of course, there are social groups that are in a less favorable position. If we use an older term, we could talk about a kind of fourth estate – communities of migrant origin, whose representatives in France are already second or third generation.
These are people who, for various reasons, have difficulty reaching the middle class level and fail to secure the standard of living they aspire to. Many of them do not even speak the language of their ancestors, and French is their native language. However, they often encounter difficulties in accessing elite schools and the opportunities that would allow them to rise socially.
Similar phenomena can also be observed in Bulgaria. We see young people from marginalized backgrounds who do not receive the same quality of education as their peers in better-off schools. These schools have better conditions, better quality teaching and stricter organization. In less disadvantaged areas, there is often a shortage of teachers who are willing to work in such an environment.
When people grow up in such conditions, their opportunities for social realization are limited. This creates the conditions for discontent, which can subsequently manifest itself in the form of protests.
- But since their beginning, the protests have also been used by various political groups. To what extent are they related to the upcoming presidential elections in France?
- There are certainly political forces that are trying to use the situation to their advantage. France is facing important political elections and the right can reap dividends from the unrest by saying: “Look what liberal policies have led to“. Thus, the tension can strengthen support for right-wing parties. The left, for its part, finds itself in a complicated situation because the protesters are no longer just students and young people. Workers are also joining them, and part of the discontent has very specific socio-economic reasons. The crisis affects all of Europe, including France.
The problem is that the media often shows mainly the most extreme manifestations – groups with hoods who smash up shops and engage in clashes. This creates the impression that the entire protest is reduced to vandalism, while its social causes remain in the background.
- What do you mean when you criticize the way Bulgarian televisions cover these events?
- I was struck by the fact that some televisions showed the same footage, initially presenting it as scenes from France, and then - from Italy. Within a short report, different cities were mentioned, without it being clear enough where exactly the footage was filmed. This is a problem of journalistic presentation. When different events are mixed and the origin of the images is not specified, the viewer cannot form a clear idea of what is happening. More importantly, however, is that these protests are part of a broader process. They are not just acts of vandalism. There are people who are protesting for their social rights and trying to maintain the standard of living they are used to, but which is now becoming increasingly difficult to achieve.
- So the economic crisis is a key factor in this tension?
- Yes. The economic crisis is not only affecting France, but is global in nature. It is also related to wars - the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the tension in the Middle East, as well as the instability that stems from the actions of the American political elite. All of these factors affect energy supplies, prices and economic security. When people feel that their standard of living is deteriorating and the social system cannot compensate for their losses, dissatisfaction deepens.
- Donald Trump sent a message to French President Emmanuel Macron to get rid of migrants. Is it possible to implement such a policy at all?
- I don't see how this could happen on such a scale. Imagine what it would mean to deport millions of people who live in Europe. In France and Germany, there are large communities whose representatives were born there, have citizenship and have been part of society for generations. They cannot simply be expelled. In Spain, the situation seems calmer, partly because of social policy and the peculiarities of local migration processes. There, as in Italy, there is social tension, but it does not always manifest itself in the same way as in France. However, the political consequences are visible. Right-wing parties are gaining support because they emphasize migration, security and a sense of loss of control. In Germany, for example, the “Alternative for Germany“ is strengthening its position. Politicians like Alice Weidel are managing to exploit public discontent, despite criticism of them. This creates a contradiction: some positions are considered politically incorrect, but at the same time they gain more and more public support and become a tool for political mobilization.
- If Republicans lose control of the US House of Representatives and Senate, is it possible that this will lead to an impeachment procedure against Donald Trump? And how would such a development affect the international situation?
- It is difficult to predict. The international situation is extremely complex, because major powers are involved, including China. It is not just about the US and Russia.
- What is China's role in the war in Ukraine? This question seems to remain outside the public debate...
- China's role is important, especially from a technological and economic point of view. A significant part of the electronic components, microchips and technologies used in the production of modern weapons and drones are related to Chinese production or to supply chains in which China has a significant participation. This means that China has an economic interest in the development of these industries. The issue is not commented on in sufficient detail, although technological dependence is an important part of modern military conflicts.
- So, behind the military actions are not only political decisions, but also international production and trade networks?
- Exactly. The production of electronic components and systems is distributed between different countries, including China and South Korea. There are also specific trade and supply channels that connect China, Russia and other countries. These processes are also important for the Black Sea region. Restricting shipping and blocking certain supplies can have consequences that go beyond trade in grain and other goods. It is possible that these are also weapons or components that can be used to develop new weapons systems.
- Therefore, the incidents in the Black Sea should also be considered in the context of the broader geopolitical confrontation?
- Yes, they should not be considered in isolation. They may be caused by broader processes related to military conflicts, international trade, technological dependencies and relations between great powers. This is precisely why it is important to look at the broader context, and not just pay attention to individual incidents.
- Let's clarify your point. If Donald Trump loses the midterm elections, his influence is limited and impeachment proceedings are initiated against him, how would this affect the war in Ukraine and the European Union?
- First of all, it will affect the United States itself. American society is already deeply divided. The two-party system - Democrats and Republicans - is deeply rooted in the American political tradition. There are states that support the Republicans predominantly, others are predominantly Democratic, and still others are contested. Whatever happens in the elections, the division in American society will remain serious. This is also important for Europe, because the United States has long been the mainstay of the so-called Euro-Atlantic unity. Already during his first term, and especially in his second, Trump began to move away from the traditional line of this unity. However, he does not act independently - there are significant economic, political and military interests behind him. American policy is increasingly oriented towards the rearrangement of world relations and the affirmation of its own interests in various regions. This is especially clear in the attitude towards Latin America, which Washington traditionally views as an area of strategic importance.
- So the American administration is striving to maintain its dominant influence in the Western Hemisphere?
- Yes, this is part of the political logic. Trump's statements about Canada, as well as the attitude of American business towards the countries of Latin America, show a desire to preserve the dominant influence of the United States in the region. In American political rhetoric, these countries are often seen as part of its own strategic sphere of influence. If we look at the world in a broader perspective, we will see that North and South America constitute one hemisphere with significant resources and relatively favorable demographic prospects. Europe, on the other hand, is facing an aging population and demographic decline. Africa, South America and parts of Asia will continue to grow demographically, while in Europe the population will probably decrease. These processes will affect the future distribution of economic and political burden in the world. People will continue to look for places where they can find better living conditions and fulfillment, and this will give rise to new migration and political challenges.
- While we are talking about these processes, I would like to return to social tensions in Europe. Is there a danger that it will grow into a real revolutionary wave?
- I do not think that we are facing a revolution in the classical sense of the word. In order to achieve revolutionary change, there must be two sufficiently strong and organized parties opposing each other. What we are observing in France and elsewhere is more like a series of social outbursts that do not reach the level of revolutionary change. There are enough factors that deter such an escalation - fear of the consequences, institutional control and the ability of states to manage social tension.
- However, is it possible that some of these riots are provoked or used purposefully, instead of being completely spontaneous?
- Sometimes one is left with the impression that various organized forces can also intervene in such events. Not everything is necessarily a spontaneous outburst of discontent. There are always groups that seek to take the situation to the extreme and thus make the protest itself repulsive to society. But here we must also pay attention to the media. They often show only the extreme manifestations - clashes, broken shops and people in hoods. Not enough attention is paid to large peaceful demonstrations and the social demands of the protesters. For example, in Spain there were also significant public demonstrations, but they did not always receive the same media attention. The media market prefers dramatic shots because they attract viewers. Thus, exceptions begin to look like the norm. And the real problem is that large groups of the population are becoming poorer, losing their security and cannot provide their children with the same educational and life opportunities that previous generations had. After the Second World War, there were two generations in Europe that lived to a significant extent in peace and relative prosperity. Today, more and more people are worried that their children may find themselves facing war and a much more uncertain future.
- In this sense, how real is the danger of a major war? There is increasing talk of rearmament and the restoration of compulsory military service in European countries...
- The danger cannot be ruled out. Wars today are increasingly technological and are fought in a way different from the one we know from the past. But if it comes to a point where someone loses control of the situation and uses nuclear weapons, the consequences would be catastrophic. At the same time, I am not sure that modern societies are ready for the great sacrifices that a large-scale war would require. In Europe, the restoration of military service is again being discussed, as well as the need for citizens to undergo some form of military training. In my opinion, we should think about more serious preparation of the population for crisis situations. In Switzerland, for example, there is a tradition of civil preparedness. But such a change requires serious public preparation, for which European societies may not yet be ready.
- You mentioned Switzerland, but the United States also has a specific constitutional tradition related to the right of citizens to own weapons. What is the idea behind this right?
- In the American constitutional tradition, the right to bear arms is not seen solely as an opportunity for a person to protect their property. It is also related to the idea that citizens should be able to defend their freedoms against possible abuse of power by the state. This is part of the historical understanding of civil rights and the ability of society to oppose state lawlessness. In this sense, the right to bear arms is related to a broader concept of resistance to tyranny and the protection of civil liberties. These ideas have their roots in the political philosophy of the era of revolutions, including the American and French Revolutions. They continue to be present in the American public consciousness and explain why the issue of civil rights and the limits of state power has such special importance there.
See more of the conversation in the VIDEO.