After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent rupture of Moscow's economic ties with the West, China has become Russia's main partner. In recent years, trade between the two countries has grown at an impressive pace, but in 2025, the growth suddenly gave way to a decline. What caused it and what are the prospects for Russian-Chinese economic relations?
How is Russia and China's trade developing
In 2025, the volume of Russian-Chinese trade decreased for the first time in the last five years - suddenly by seven percent, to about 195 billion euros, according to Chinese customs data. The main reasons are the fall in prices for key Russian exports, especially oil and gas, as well as the decline in demand for Chinese cars in Russia.
For the period January-November 2025, Beijing paid Moscow almost 20 percent less for the supplied oil than for the same period in 2024, although the physical volumes of supplies remained the same. At the same time, exports of Chinese passenger cars to Russia in physical terms collapsed by almost 1.5 times.
There is no noticeable dynamics in the other categories. 2025 showed that the cooperation, which China and Russia call in official documents “friendship without borders”, has nevertheless reached its limits, economist Liam Peach told DW.
“Foreign direct investment by Chinese companies in Russia remains low, bilateral trade is declining, and the use of the yuan in cross-border payments is declining. Russia wants more than China, judging by everything, is ready to offer. At the same time, the deepening of trade, investment and financial ties is limited by China's relatively low need for Russian goods and Western sanctions," the expert explains.
Russia is increasingly dependent on China
Before the war in Ukraine, Russia's main trading partner was the European Union. Expanding cooperation with China made it possible to compensate for the loss of the European market. But the replacement turned out to be incomplete: the structure of these relations is different and much less profitable for Russia.
Almost 80 percent of Russian exports to China are mineral raw materials, according to Chinese customs data. Beijing does not seek to buy Russian products with higher added value. For comparison, in 2021, the share of mineral raw materials in Russian exports was slightly more than 60 percent, according to Eurostat data.
The picture of Chinese exports to Russia is completely different - almost two-thirds fall on high-tech products. Unlike Western automakers, which assembled cars in Russian factories before the war, their Chinese competitors hardly invest in Russian enterprises and mainly supply finished products. As a result, the share of Chinese brands in Russia is 50-60 percent, according to data from the research company “Avtostat".
The reason for this asymmetry is that Moscow depends on Beijing much more than vice versa. China has effectively become the only buyer of a large part of Russian exports, while Russia remains a second-tier partner for China, explains Vasily Astrov, an economist at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Research. Russia accounts for only four percent of China's foreign trade.
What risks does Russia's high dependence on China pose?
Such dependence on one partner poses obvious risks. What if the "friendship without borders" is tarnished by something?
“So far, the Chinese are not abusing the vulnerable position of their junior strategic partner,” commented Alexander Gabuev, director of the Berlin Carnegie Center for the Study of Russia and Eurasia. “Russian businessmen complain that it is difficult to negotiate with the Chinese, but so far they have not been observed to twist Russia's hands, especially on issues important to it. However, it is not certain that Beijing will maintain this position in the future."
The other risk is related to the state of the Chinese economy, about which economists are increasingly expressing concerns. They are mainly concerned about the slowdown in consumption growth and the decline in investment activity. If aggregate demand in China decreases by one percent, Russian GDP could shrink by 0.1 percent, analysts at the Institute for Emerging Economies at the Bank of Finland calculate.
In the event of any of these scenarios, Russia will effectively find itself trapped. Entering into conflict with the West, Moscow has expanded to the East. And if it tries to turn back to the West and quickly restore its access to Western markets, it will be hindered by both sanctions and the fact that many previous niches - for example, in the gas market - are already occupied by other suppliers.
Author: Oleg Loginov