Tensions between Washington and Tehran have escalated again in the past week after US President Donald Trump said that an "armada" of warships is heading towards the Islamic Republic, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned that Iran is "more ready than ever, with its finger on the trigger", writes BTA.
Trump's statements and Tehran's reaction have raised concerns that the US could soon launch a massive attack on the Islamic Republic, which would cause serious geopolitical upheaval.
Reasons for the tension
In late December, Iran was gripped by mass protests that initially focused on the country's poor economic situation, but later began to demand the abolition of the theocratic regime. Tehran responded to the demonstrators with force.
The US-based organization "Human Rights Activists" (Human Rights Activists News Agency) said on Saturday that it had counted more than 5,200 people killed and 40,879 detained in the crackdown on the demonstrations. The numbers are expected to rise.
The Iranian government released its first official death toll on Wednesday, saying it had reached 3,117. Of those, 2,427 were civilians and security forces, while the rest were "terrorists".
In mid-January, Trump hinted that the United States could intervene in the Islamic Republic in support of the protesters. On January 13, he urged Iranian demonstrators on his Twitter account to continue their protests. "HELP IS ON THE WAY," the American leader added.
A day later, however, he said that "reliable sources" have reported to him that Iranian authorities have abandoned their plans to execute protesters.
Several Arab countries have tried to persuade Trump to postpone strikes on Iran because of the risk of a wider military conflict, the Financial Times notes. According to sources familiar with the matter, Israeli officials have also expressed concerns that their country could become the target of possible Iranian retaliatory strikes if the United States attacks the Islamic Republic.
Although Trump's rhetoric has softened, the United States has begun deploying additional military forces to the region.
"We have a lot of ships moving in that direction, just in case. I would prefer nothing to happen, but we are watching them very closely," the Republican president told reporters aboard "Air Force One" on Friday. on his way back to the US after meeting with world leaders in the Swiss resort of Davos.
Gathering of US military forces
A US Navy official was quoted by the "Washington Post" as saying last week that the aircraft carrier "Abraham Lincoln" and three accompanying destroyers have left the South China Sea and are now sailing in the Indian Ocean.
"Abraham Lincoln" is one of the US aircraft carriers of the "Nimitz" class, which is second only to the "Ford" class, explains the magazine "Spiegel". The "Nimitz" class aircraft carriers are slightly smaller, but still have stealth fighters such as the F-35S, as well as the older F/A-18E and F.
In addition, the "Abraham Lincoln" also carries a very special aircraft - the A-18G Growler (EA18G) - an electronic warfare machine that received special praise from military analysts after the mission in Venezuela.
"Abraham Lincoln" joins the already significant military forces in the region.
The United States has maintained military bases in the Middle East for decades, which currently house between 40,000 and 50,000 troops, notes the Qatari television "Al Jazeera". According to the American think tank Council on Foreign Relations, Washington operates a vast network of military installations in at least 19 locations in the Middle East. Eight of these are permanent bases located in Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
However, the question is how much additional US military units will be needed once they arrive in the Middle East, commented "Spiegel". In the course of the 12-day war with Iran, the Israeli army practically destroyed the entire air defense of the Islamic Republic, the publication writes. Since then, Tehran has sought to acquire new air defense systems from Russia and China.
According to Fabian Hintz, a military expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Iran has ordered Russian S-400 and Chinese HQ-9 air defense systems. Hintz doubts, however, that they have already been delivered. "Even if they have been delivered, it is unlikely that they have received sufficient quantities in a short time", Hintz said, quoted by "Spiegel".
Possible scenarios
Nate Swanson, an expert at the "Scowcroft" Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council, believes there are several possible scenarios if the United States ultimately decides to strike Iran.
According to Swanson, these strikes could target the Islamic Republic's nuclear and missile programs, although hitting such targets would not significantly help the protesters.
Another possibility is to attack Iran's security structures. The United States likely has intelligence on a number of sites and individuals associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, law enforcement, and the Basij paramilitary militia that may have been involved in suppressing the protest movement. Such strikes could provide some form of retribution and moral comfort for protesters, but it is unclear how effective they would be in deterring repression by the regime, Swanson writes.
There is also the possibility of hitting economic targets. This could include oil export terminals as well as key natural gas infrastructure. Such an operation would be risky and could affect energy markets.
Many protesters in Iran are calling for a coup to remove the Islamic Republic's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. While it is unclear whether such a coup is possible (much less sensible), it would be a crucial turning point. The Supreme Leader is the highest political and religious authority in Iran. There has been only one previous change of supreme leader in the Islamic Republic's history, and there is no generally accepted successor to Khamenei. Removing him would create an unprecedented power vacuum, and it is impossible to predict what the consequences would be, Swanson said.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday commentary article in which he warned that if attacked, Tehran would "respond with everything it has".
Araghchi's words likely referred to Iran's short- and medium-range missiles, "Euronews" commented. The Islamic Republic launched ballistic missile strikes on Israel during the 12-day war and did not resort to its stockpile of shorter-range missiles at that time. It is possible that Iran could use these missiles to strike US bases in the Persian Gulf, comments "Euronews".
"A confrontation in which all forces are mobilized would certainly be ruthless and would drag on much, much longer than the fantastic deadlines that Israel and its proxies are trying to impose on the White House," warns Araghchi in his article in "Wall Street Journal".