How are the Houthis reacting to the US and Israeli attacks on Iran? For now, the Shiite militias in Yemen are holding back, although they have announced that they would act in such a scenario. But at least at this point the situation does not seem explosive, although it is tense.
The Houthis, who call themselves Ansar Allah, which translates to "Helpers of God", have controlled large parts of northern and western Yemen since 2014, including the capital Sanaa. In 2015, their offensive prompted the intervention of a Saudi-led coalition. The ensuing war has resulted in over 150,000 casualties, according to UN data. A ceasefire was established in 2022, but Yemen is effectively divided. In January 2024, the Houthis were again designated a terrorist organization by the United States.
During the Gaza war, they attacked both Israel and merchant ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden - one of the world's most important trade routes. The attacks were intended to demonstrate solidarity with Hamas and at the same time put pressure on Israel and its allies. The United States, Britain and Israel have repeatedly responded with air strikes against Houthis targets.
"The Iranian regime is fighting for survival"
Now the question is whether the militias will escalate again in the course of their attacks on Iran. "The Iranian regime's counterattacks show that this is truly a fight for survival," said Middle East expert Thomas Falk of the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation.
He believes that in this situation, Tehran is trying to activate its network of regional allies, such as Hezbollah, which has already attacked Israel. "If the regime believes that this is its last battle, it will do everything it can to involve all its partners in it," said Falk. Among them are the Houthis.
But it is not certain that they will react, says Abdulghani al-Iriani of the Center for Strategic Studies in Sanaa. "The Houthis will play no role in this confrontation," he said. Their strategic added value has so far been to "sow chaos on behalf of Iran while at the same time giving Iran the opportunity to deny responsibility for it." Now that Iran itself is acting openly, this model is losing its meaning.
Limited symbolic steps
However, military action is not out of the question in the short term. "Many of the Houthis' military facilities were destroyed by US strikes last summer," explains Thomas Falk. However, they are "still strong enough to be able to attack targets in the region for at least a few more weeks." This applies primarily to missile and drone attacks, as well as attacks on shipping.
Al-Iriani, for his part, expects limited steps. "They can carry out symbolic actions, but not really serious attacks," he believes. The movement is now trying to consolidate its position to a much greater extent. Behind the scenes, there are attempts to push Saudi Arabia back into negotiations. "I still think Israel could attack them, which would force them to act," says Al-Iriani. That is, the escalation could also be provoked from the outside.
"Iran should not be underestimated"
If Iran is permanently weakened, this will also have direct consequences for the Houthis, says Thomas Falk. "If the regime is removed or greatly weakened so that it no longer poses a threat, this will also lead to a weakening of its proxies, including the Houthis, in the medium term."
Without Iranian finances, arms supplies and ideological support, the militias would lose one of the pillars of their power. Then the international community could "come even more consistently against the Houthis".
However, Al-Iriani points out that Iran should not be written off prematurely. Even weakened, Tehran "will play a role in the region after this war". At the same time, he believes that the future political new order in the region is likely to limit Iran's support for the Houthis. "I think they will not receive much support from Iran in the future. This may lead them to negotiate a fair and balanced peace agreement in Yemen."
Pragmatic concessions despite ideological rigidity
Al-Iriani also points out the importance of internal dynamics. According to him, the war will push all moderate forces to the periphery. And since the Houthis organization is dominated by militant leaders, reforms would be difficult. A more likely scenario is that the Houthis will maintain their ideological rigidity but politically make pragmatic concessions to consolidate their power in Yemen. "This would guarantee the survival of the organization and preserve its relevance."
Thomas Falk speaks in this context of a "impulse" for the entire region, as "destabilizing non-state actors" could be weakened to such an extent "that they become controllable at least in the medium term".
Author: Kersten Knip