"I don't think the Iranian regime is on the verge of collapse", military expert Jan Busse told ARD. According to Busse, who is a research fellow at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, the US expected this war to be much faster and easier, and Donald Trump did not imagine that Iran would be able to carry out the large-scale escalation that has created problems for the entire region and the global economy.
"That's why Trump is now trying to find a way to end the war as quickly as possible and still be able to declare it a success," says Busse. "Iran will certainly be able to restore its other capabilities in the medium term."
The reason is that this regime - unlike Iran under Saddam Hussein and Libya under Muammar Gaddafi - does not depend on a single person. The ideological basis of the Iranian regime supports it, and quite classic administrative procedures were put into effect to replace the man at the top and appoint Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader, says Bousse.
What will Iran's governance look like after the war?
The fact that Mojtaba Khamenei, who is considered more extreme than his father and is very close to the Revolutionary Guard, was chosen to lead the Islamic Republic is not surprising, the expert believes. "When the regime is under pressure, it is unwilling to take risks by allowing a more pragmatic person to take power", the expert notes to ARD. "In the long run, the Revolutionary Guard will probably concentrate even more power. However, it still relies on the logic of the Islamic Republic system. That is why I do not think that there is a danger that Iran will abruptly switch to a classic military dictatorship."
The Iranian regime aims not only to survive this war, but also to maintain its ability to attack Israel, American bases in the region and the monarchies in the Gulf, the expert explains. This is precisely what Israel and the US are trying to prevent. Whether they will succeed depends initially on whether Trump will declare an end to the war in the short term or whether it will turn into a long-term war of attrition. It is also important what exactly the capacity of the joint operation is, because despite Trump trying to convince the world otherwise, the ammunition of the US and Israel is not an inexhaustible resource.
Currently, the US is making contradictory statements about the goal of the war, Buse emphasizes. First, Donald Trump spoke of regime change, then Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the only goal is the destruction of Iran's military potential, and did not even mention the nuclear program or regime change. "I am afraid that the Trump administration itself does not know what its exact goals are and is working without a strategy. This is extremely risky," says Jan Buse.
At the same time, Israel is much more categorical in its desire to overthrow the ayatollahs' regime. From their point of view, this would mean that then there would be no direct threat to either Israel or the US anymore. However, Washington is more interested in the oil market, as well as the stability of its partners in the region. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE are already seriously worried that a collapse of the Iranian regime would have extremely destabilizing consequences for them as well. "In this sense, it may come to the point where Donald Trump has to convince Benjamin Netanyahu that the war must end," Buse believes.
Will Kurdish militias intervene in the conflict?
According to the expert, the idea that the US and Israel could support Kurdish militias is very risky and could have unforeseen consequences for the region. "If the US gives the green light to something like this, it will question not only the survival of the regime in Iran, but also the territorial integrity of the country", Buse told ARD.
If Kurdish groups decide to lay claim to part of Iran's territory, this will also be a big problem for Turkey, because many of these militant groups maintain ties with the Kurdistan Workers' Party. Such a development would also destabilize Iraq, where there is a large Kurdish minority. "Actually, from the perspective of the Kurds themselves, this is not a very good idea. In the past, the US has relied on the Kurds and then abandoned them,", recalls Buse.
The big question in such a scenario is whether the US will take responsibility for the chaos that may arise. "Responsibility will have to be primarily assumed by the states in the region."
Significant weakening, but not collapse of the regime
It is possible that this conflict will end with an extremely weakened regime in Iran, but not one that has lost control of the country. This means that it will probably continue to suppress the opposition by force, the expert believes. "Such a regime will probably find it difficult to threaten neighboring countries, at least in the beginning. But it will have much more serious reasons to rely on its nuclear program with the idea of protecting itself from another war," Busse told ARD.
Last but not least, the question remains how long the US will continue this war, while the risk of a large increase in oil prices and huge inflation as a result is on the table. After all, Donald Trump does not want to alienate his most loyal voters before the midterm elections in November this year. "I imagine that at some point the tension along this line will become so serious that the war will end without "unconditional surrender" of the Iranian regime, which Trump spoke about without a clear victory, but with a significant weakening of the regime in Tehran."
Author: Eckart Aretz ARD