Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrsky reported that Russian forces have stepped up ground attacks over the past week, attacking 619 times over a four-day period. This is in line with the ISW assessment that Russian forces have launched their 2026 Spring-Summer Offensive.
This is according to the "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW).
The Russian military command is trying to attract new forces and is counting on deteriorating spring weather conditions, such as fog, to reduce the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone strikes and artillery for future attacks.
Syrsky said the Russian military command has deployed tens of thousands of servicemen in heavily depleted infantry attacks. Russian forces have lost a total of 8,710 soldiers in the past week (between March 17 and 23).
ISW continues to assess that it is unlikely that Russian forces will capture the Fortress Belt in 2026, but will achieve some tactical gains at a significant cost.
However, Russian officials are already setting expectations in the domestic information space for a slow advance and high casualties, with a deputy of the Russian State Duma stating on March 23 that all wars have casualties, but that Russian forces will try to minimize casualties by advancing at a "calm pace" towards Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
The Kremlin continues to try to cover up and dismiss the economic consequences of its costly war in Ukraine, while trying to take advantage of the current high energy prices. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on March 23 that Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) in January 2026 was 2.1% lower than in January 2025.
Putin also acknowledged that Russia needs to return to a sustainable economic growth trajectory with low inflation and stabilized labor markets. Putin said that unemployment in Russia was 2.2% in January 2026 and that inflation was below six percent year-on-year. However, Russia's exceptionally low unemployment rate reflects the fact that Russia is experiencing a labor shortage.
This is likely causing wage inflation in the civilian and defense sectors, contributing to overall inflation. Putin said that Russia needs to take into account "fluctuations" in global energy markets, given the current "global tensions" - possibly referring to rising energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East.
Putin repeated his calls for Russian oil and gas companies to use additional revenues from rising oil prices to reduce their debt burden to local banks.
Russia is benefiting financially from the global rise in oil prices and increased sales of Russian energy after the United States temporarily lifted sanctions against Russia, contradicting previous Kremlin claims that the Russian economy had not been affected by Western sanctions.
The ongoing war in the Middle East is likely to exacerbate Russia's ability to resolve its liquidity problems related to unsustainable wartime spending. Russian opposition publication "Meduza" reported on March 23 that data from Russian state agencies and regulators showed that the gold reserves of the Russian Central Bank fell to 74.3 million troy ounces in February 2026, the lowest level since March 2022.
Russia is turning to private military companies (PMCs) to protect Russian critical infrastructure from Ukrainian drone strikes. On March 23, Putin signed a law allowing some PMCs and related security organizations to receive combat small arms and ammunition from the Rosgvardia to protect critical infrastructure from Ukrainian drone strikes.
The law applies to PMCs belonging to Russian fuel and energy companies, strategic enterprises, state corporations and organizations that protect critical facilities. The law states that the Rosgvardia will issue weapons to prevent various types of drone strikes during the "special military operation" in Ukraine. The PMC must submit an application to Rosgvardia, which will seek approval from the directorate of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) responsible for the region.
U.S. and Ukrainian delegations held another round of bilateral meetings in Miami, Florida, on March 22. U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkov said on March 22 that the "constructive" talks between the U.S. and Ukraine focused on humanitarian efforts and establishing a lasting and reliable security framework for Ukraine.
The Secretary of the Defense Council of Ukraine, Rustem Umerov, noted that the meetings focused on security guarantees and the exchange and return of Ukrainian citizens from Russia.
Russia continues to take steps to expand its permanent military base in Belarus, in particular to increase Russia's long-range drone strikes against Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on March 23 that Russia plans to deploy four ground stations for controlling long-range drones in Belarus and to deploy an additional unspecified number in occupied Ukraine.
Zelensky announced on February 23 that Russian forces are using relay stations in Belarus to support strikes with "Shahed" drones.
Russia and Belarus signed an agreement on February 5 that allows Russia to establish "military facilities" in Belarus.