Iran's restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have led to a rise in the price of Russian Urals crude oil, as well as liquefied natural gas, aluminum and other goods, Bloomberg reports.
According to Argus Media, quoted by the agency, on Friday, April 1, the average price of Russian Urals crude oil in the country's western ports was $93.4 per barrel.
According to an analysis conducted by several European governments and shared with Bloomberg, if crude prices remain high until the end of the year, Russian oil exports could increase by $40 billion. If the war ends soon, the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil prices return to their previous levels within three months, the analysis estimates that the increase in Russia's oil export revenues will be less than $10 billion.
On March 12, the Guardian newspaper, citing data from the Finnish think tank “Center for Energy and Clean Air Research“ (CREA), reported that since the start of the war in the Middle East on February 28, Russia could have earned an additional 672 million euros from sales of oil, gas and coal, of which approximately 625 million euros were from oil exports.
At the same time, the “Financial Times“, citing its own calculations and analysts, reported that Russia's oil export revenues, amid the escalation in the Middle East, amounted to up to $150 million per day, or $1.3-1.9 billion by March 12. By the end of March, analysts say, the total additional revenue could have reached $3.3–4.9 billion if the average price of Urals crude had reached $70–80 per barrel.
On the night of March 13, the United States temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil loaded on tankers until March 12. The waiver is valid until April 11 and does not apply to transactions related to Iran or involving individuals and entities associated with Iran, Cuba, North Korea, or new regions of Russia, including Crimea.
After the restrictions were eased, India and other Asian countries sharply increased their oil purchases. The Philippines and South Korea have already received their first deliveries of petrochemical products from Russia, while Vietnam and Sri Lanka are still negotiating, and Thailand and Indonesia have confirmed their readiness to start purchases.
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that rising oil prices and the easing of US sanctions against Russia will generate additional budget revenues. However, Moscow will not supply oil to countries that maintain price ceilings, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said.