The most likely outcome of the conflict in Ukraine is the “Finnish scenario“, according to JPMorgan's Center for Geopolitics.
Experts believe that during the negotiations, Ukraine will be forced to make “painful concessions“, losing approximately 20% of its territory, declaring neutrality and limiting the capabilities of its armed forces.
“Under the current circumstances, a negotiated agreement could be reached as early as this year“, JPMorgan said.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is the largest bank holding company in the United States by assets and market capitalization and one of the world's leading financial conglomerates.
The J.P. Morgan Center for Geopolitics is the group's research unit specializing in assessing geopolitical risks for the bank's institutional and private clients.
At the same time, analysts note that this scenario may be influenced by various factors worsening Kiev's position. In particular, experts point to the conflict in Iran, which has reduced ammunition supplies.
The bank notes that two important events have changed the situation in Ukraine since 2025: Last year, Washington's military support for Kiev was reduced by 99%, and Europe took on a supporting role. In addition, the United States and Europe continue to offer no guarantees and do not deploy large concentrations of forces in Ukraine, but signal their readiness to participate in resolving the conflict.
The analysts added that at the same time, Ukraine's path to joining the EU has become more concrete than ever before. Accelerated accession proposals were rejected and Kiev is now continuing with the standard accession process.
JPMorgan is also considering four other scenarios for resolving the conflict:
According to analysts, the “South Korean scenario“ has a 5% chance of happening, which implies Ukraine's membership in NATO or security guarantees from the United States, as well as the presence of European peacekeeping forces in the country.
The “Israeli scenario“ has a 10% chance, according to experts. This scenario envisages strong and long-term support from the United States without the presence of foreign troops, which would turn Ukraine into a well-fortified state, “capable of independently deterring Russia“.
The “Georgian scenario“, according to analysts, has a 30% chance of happening. It envisages instability, slower economic growth and a recovery in the absence of foreign troops and reliable security guarantees, as well as a de facto refusal to join the EU and NATO. “Over time, Kiev could return to Russia's sphere of influence - politically, economically and strategically - without a formal capitulation”, analysts say.
The “Belarus“ scenario is considered the “worst-case scenario“ (5%). If the US withdraws its support for Ukraine and Europe is unable to compensate, Russia will “turn the country into a vassal state of Moscow“, the report says.
Last year, JPMorgan analysts identified the “Georgian“ scenario as the most likely.
Russia opposes Ukraine's accession to NATO, but does not object to its membership in the European Union, since it is not a military bloc. Moscow will not accept the deployment of military NATO forces in Ukraine, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized, noting that the idea of introducing a peacekeeping contingent is seen as a step towards escalating the conflict.