The optimistic scenario is what was promised yesterday evening, when Trump said that the end of the war was near. Just a few hours later, however, after the confirmed start of mining in the Strait of Hormuz, this showed that things are much worse. This was stated in an interview with bTV by Alexander Nikolov.
Many conclusions can be drawn from the entire military conflict. Obviously, the US and Israel are trying to protect energy infrastructure while Iran uses energy raw materials as its strongest weapon. This was clearly shown to us in 2022 by Russia. After the drop from 120 to nearly 85 dollars per barrel, many people were quick to say that everything is fine. How did this happen? There were three parallel statements, in addition to Trump's. Saudi Arabia confirmed that it would resume and restore capacities to about 70% and separately what was said that strategic reserves could be released up to 400 million barrels, which is a huge amount. For comparison, in 2022, during the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, strategic reserves were released about 182 million. Roughly, on a daily basis, blocking the strait means between 20 to 22 million barrels - these are only oil products as a direct effect. Roughly speaking, it is "buying time" for about 20 days in the hope that the conflict will be resolved in them. The fact that prices remained 50% above the average before the start of the conflict is an extremely serious signal. It is important that tanker insurance premiums are still many times higher than normal. That is, the factual assessment of the people who are involved in analyzing the probability of a tanker being hit is very critical. For now, Europe is in a difficult position. The longer the conflict continues, the more difficult it will become for us," he added.
Bulgarian reserves will last for 60 days. According to Nikolov, this will not be enough to avoid inflation. "There will certainly be a price increase," he was categorical.
"If possible, the parliamentary parties, the Prime Minister and the entire Council of Ministers should review the decision limiting the refinery's exports and thus untie the hands, if possible, of "Lukoil" to declare larger quantities for delivery and processing, which will provide a slightly wider buffer. If everything normalizes, the quantities of petroleum products will be easily sold on the foreign market. If not, it will give an additional 40% time in processing, if at all raw material can be delivered at the moment. Where does the question come from, which is critical. The quantities do not necessarily have to be from Russia. If there is a need to violate the sanctions, this is a political task that must be communicated to the European Commission and the relevant administrative bodies in order to grant such a derogation. The smaller quantities the refinery processes, the higher the price for the end user. If they do not listen, they will pay the political price. The problem will not be able to be swept away," Nikolov also commented.