Grain exports from Ukraine have been threatened after a series of Russian strikes on ports and ships in the Black Sea. The sea route is blocked, and there is still no good alternative.
Russian attacks on Ukraine's port infrastructure sharply intensified in the summer of 2026, and the security situation in the Black Sea has been complicated by Russian strikes on civilian ships. Some of them have stopped docking in the port of Odessa, which is why domestic grain prices in Ukraine are already falling, while international prices have started to rise. Ukrainian grain exports have been threatened. Can river transport on the Danube, railways and road transport replace the sea route?
In the first two weeks of July alone, Russia launched 23 strikes on Ukrainian ports, including in the Odessa region, as well as 17 attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea. These attacks killed and injured dozens of civilians.
The most high-profile incident was on July 19, when Russia launched three Kh-59/Kh-69 cruise missiles near Odessa at the civilian cargo ship GOLDEN LEO, flying the flag of Guinea-Bissau and owned by a Turkish company. The ship was loaded with Ukrainian corn. According to the Ukrainian Navy, ten people died, including a Ukrainian pilot. And on July 26, the damaged cargo ship sank in the Gulf of Odessa along with its cargo.
On the night of July 27, there was another Russian attack on civilian commercial vessels in the ports of the Nikolaev region, which have been blocked since 2022 and no commercial voyages are made from there. As a result of the attack, there were deaths and injuries. "This is another deliberate attack by Russia against civilian shipping, which demonstrates the systematic nature of Russian terror", wrote the Sea Ports Administration of Ukraine (SPA).
Ukraine convenes UN Security Council over Russian blockade in the Black Sea
The consequences of Russian terror were immediately felt in Ukraine, as foreign ships stopped docking in Ukrainian ports, and the Danish container shipping company Maersk announced that it was canceling some of its voyages due to safety risks.
Ukraine's Foreign Ministry condemned the attacks as terrorist. "Their consequences are felt far beyond Ukraine and affect regional and global food security", Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga wrote in a post on the social network X.
Nearly 90% of agricultural exports are carried out by sea
The Director General of the Ukrainian Agrarian Federation Pavel Koval explained to DW how painfully the country has been affected by the attacks on its ports. According to him, the losses are already quite real, because port infrastructure, which is important for business, is being destroyed, damage is being caused to commercial vessels, and Russian attacks have shifted from the vicinity of Odessa to the mouth of the Danube. This has already affected the economy of the entire agricultural sector: the price of the new harvest on the domestic market is falling, while on foreign markets it is rising.
"Now wheat in Ukraine is sold directly from the fields at a price of about 6,000 hryvnias (about 117 euros) per ton including VAT. If the yield is low due to spring frosts and winter cold, this means direct losses for producers," Pavel Koval noted.
The dependence of Ukrainian agriculture on the sea route is enormous. The port of Odessa provides nearly 56% of all Ukrainian exports, and nine out of ten tons of agricultural products are exported by sea.
Can Ukrainian grain be saved along the Danube or by rail?
The main question now is whether alternative routes can replace deep-sea ports. The association "Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club" has already appealed to the Prime Minister of Ukraine with a call for immediate measures to be taken to protect Ukrainian exporters due to the sharp deterioration in security in the waters of the Black Sea.
They also ask that a plan be developed to restore alternative export routes through the country's western border and by resuming shipping on the Danube. But there are problems there too. There are different restrictions on each of the routes in question.
For example, Danube ports are suffering from two disasters at the same time: Russian bombing at the exit to the Black Sea and the falling level of the river itself. "The level of the Danube in Budapest has dropped to a historic low. In addition, Ukrainian infrastructure has been destroyed by missile strikes - investments and operational intervention are needed, but above all, a guarantee of security is needed. Something can be repaired in a few weeks, but if missiles are constantly falling there, restoring shipping will be difficult," says the general director of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation.
There are also additional risks on transit routes. Koval recalls that neighboring EU countries - Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia - have repeatedly tried to "play their political trump cards" and take advantage of the situation, as has already happened in previous years. That is why he is pleading for action at the Brussels level, citing European law, according to which a member state does not have the right to block trade within the EU.
Harvests and food security
Despite everything, the harvest in Ukraine is going according to plan. According to Koval's estimate, by the end of July, about 11-12 million tons of cereals (approximately 20 percent of the area) had been harvested, of which over 6 million tons were wheat. Even if only half of it is intended for food, this already guarantees domestic food security for a year.