Government forces in Syria clearly cannot control all the Islamic State fighters who are behind bars. That is why the US has moved some of them to Iraq. This could be dangerous, experts warn.
Syria's Western partners are warning that the terrorist group "Islamic State" (IS) could be revived. If government forces in Damascus and Kurdish forces do not take the necessary security measures, IS fighters may escape from prisons in the northeast of the country.
In a joint statement, France, Britain, Germany and the US called for "any security vacuum" to be avoided, and the fight against "Islamic State" should not be left in the background.
IS fighters have already escaped from prisons
Currently, the situation in northeastern Syria, where Kurdish fighters are located, is tense. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are the main Kurdish military structure, withdrew after pressure from government forces. During the civil war, Kurdish forces in the region maintained a number of prisons there, where "Islamic State" fighters were held. Experts estimate that there are about 9,000 people, including women and children. After the latest clashes, followed by negotiations, the Syrian government took control of these detention centers. In the chaos of the transfer, it is believed that jihadists escaped. There is no reliable information about exactly how many there were - Damascus says about 120 people, and Kurdish sources say up to 1,500.
At the same time, the US military moved some of the jihadists held in prisons in Syria to Iraq, where they will remain in custody. The aim is to relieve some of the burden from Syrian government forces, who will now take care of the prisons, after previously fighting with the Kurds in the region.
US turns its back on the Kurds
The US military seems to be working together with the Syrian government at the moment. Sources say that Donald Trump spoke with the country's leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, who in turn insisted on the importance of international cooperation to prevent terrorist groups from returning to Syria.
The decision to send prisoners to Iraq is a likely signal of a change in Washington's policy in Syria, says Markus Schneider of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Beirut. "For a long time, the SDF insisted that they controlled the jihadists in the region and therefore needed international support", the expert says. "Last November, Syrian government forces joined the coalition against the "Islamic State". Now, American authorities clearly see the new government in Damascus as a good partner," Schneider adds. Trump's special envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack, confirmed this, saying that US cooperation with Kurdish forces has already expired. The Donald Trump administration supports the government in Damascus and distances itself from the Kurds.
The pressure on the Kurdish forces has probably increased from another direction, explains Schneider: "Of course, the main part comes from the Americans. However, the allies of the Syrian government in the person of Turkey and Saudi Arabia also have an interest in Damascus controlling the entire country, and for the SDF to play no role. But all this cannot be realized at the cost of insecurity and the revival of ISIS."
Is there sympathy among the ruling party for the jihadists?
The transfer of prisoners to Iraq is a sign of something else - the US clearly does not have full trust in the Syrian government, commented political scientist Andre Bank from the German Institute for Global and Regional Studies (GIGA). "There are concerns in Washington, and not only about the government's logistical capabilities. There are probably also concerns about a certain sympathy between "Islamic State" and some members of the Syrian government forces."
Markus Schneider shares this assessment. According to him, there are probably still quite a few jihadist or jihadist-supporting soldiers in the ranks of the Syrian government forces, given the history of the groups behind them.
The expert does not rule out the possibility of some ideological convergence, which could potentially influence the Syrian military's attitude towards the prisoners. According to Schneider, however, this does not apply to the political ranks of the government in Damascus. "In my opinion, they have significantly changed their ideology in recent months."
The dangers for Syria and for Europe
André Bank also notes that the transfer of prisoners from the "Islamic State" to Iraqi prisons carries some potential risks. There is a possibility that the prisoners there could join forces with the newly arrived jihadists. "So you have to be very careful not to create a new jihadist movement. After all, "Islamic State" was born in the prisons of Iraq." This problem also applies to those prisoners who remain in Syria. The Kurdish forces did not have the opportunity and capacity to provide any meaningful programs for the deradicalization of these people. "This means that the children and young people who lived there are most likely to be highly radicalized," the expert commented.
That is why the German government is in no hurry to accept back into the country the prisoners from these centers who are German citizens. "If these people carry out a terrorist act at some point, it will put the government in a very bad position," Schneider commented.
However, Andre Bank does not believe that the danger of a new rise of "Islamic State" at the moment is not too high. The reason - the terrorist group is no longer a globally operating force. This, of course, does not mean that it should be underestimated. "The escaped jihadists are a serious threat to the civilian population of Syria. European security forces must carefully monitor what is happening there."