Just hours after the Israeli and US attacks on Iran, the Russian Federation's permanent representative to the United Nations described the action as "armed aggression against a sovereign and independent UN member state".
Moscow is one of Tehran's closest allies. The possible collapse of the Iranian regime could also mean a blow to Russian geopolitical and economic interests.
Moscow and Tehran are working together on many projects that are important to Russia, Nikita Smagin, an expert on Russia and the Middle East, told DW. "The 7,200 km North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) (which is supposed to connect St. Petersburg with Mumbai - ed.) for example is very important for Russia. Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow has been cut off from its traditional transport routes."
Iran - "mentor" of Russia
Militarily, Iran has also been of crucial importance to Russia in the past, not least through the supply of "Shahed" drones - light and cheap Iranian drones that have already been modified by Russia. As Julian Waller, an expert at the US Center for Naval Analyses, points out, these drones have definitely changed the war in Ukraine.
"Iran has been useful in Russia's offensive war against Ukraine, although in the meantime the production of drones has largely shifted to Russia, where their design has been improved", Waller told DW. In addition, Russia and Iran have shared intelligence information, and Tehran has received missiles and ammunition from Moscow.
"However, the partnership between Russia and Iran is not about ideology. Russian politicians are not big fans of Iran, but they see Tehran as a reliable strategic partner, since both countries are under international sanctions - unlike Turkey or Egypt, which can stop trade with Russia at any time if pressured by the West," explains Smagin.
Gregory Ross of the London-based think tank Chatham House believes that Tehran has even become a kind of mentor to Moscow. "Iran has many years of experience in circumventing international sanctions and advises Russia in this regard."
Has Iran misjudged Russia?
However, many experts believe that Russia will not actively intervene in the Iran war. "The two countries are not in a defensive alliance," Waller points out.
However, Tehran expected "concrete political and military support" from Moscow, says international relations expert Mojtaba Hashemi. "That is, expanding military-technical cooperation, sharing intelligence, and sending a clear message of deterrence to enemies, not just good words."
But the regime in Iran has miscalculated. "Russia and China have bigger problems to take care of," Hashemi notes.
But Mohammad Ghaedi, an associate professor at "George Washington University", does not think that the lack of Russian support is a surprise to the Iranian leadership. "Tehran has long been skeptical of Moscow," Ghaedi says, quoting former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who said that "Russia has always betrayed the Iranian nation." The current president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said after the 12-day war in June 2025: "Countries we consider friends did not help us during the war".
High oil prices help Russia
A prolonged war in Iran would benefit Moscow, notes Gregory Ross. "Ukrainian President Zelensky's media presence will decrease as everything revolves around Iran and the threat of escalation in the Middle East." In addition, from a diplomatic and military perspective, Washington could not afford another front. "In this situation, priorities will be placed on the Middle East."
Russia would also benefit economically. After Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's oil and gas supplies pass, prices immediately rose. "If oil and gas prices remain high for months or even a year, that would be a big advantage for oil and gas exporter Russia", says Julian Waller. In that case, the Kremlin could even cut taxes, the revenues from which are used to finance the war.
Nevertheless, the collapse of the Iranian regime would be a severe blow to the authority of Russia, which likes to present itself as a great power, emphasizes Ross. "Russia is among the group of countries, including Iran, Syria and China, that are striving to replace the Western world order with a multipolar world."
Is an alliance still possible in the future?
Hashemi says Russia's lack of support for Iran could lead to a rift in their relationship. "Russia and China have used Iran as a geopolitical card in negotiations with the West. If the current regime is weakened, Moscow would rather seek contacts with a new government than invest in a collapsed structure. China would also try to get concessions from the next government to maintain at least some of its influence. But both sides know that relations with a new Iranian leadership will be completely different."