Last week, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told the US president that he fully shared his position on overthrowing the regime in Tehran. But now his tone on the war has changed significantly, reports "Politico", writes БТА.
Earlier this month, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was "on the same page" with US President Donald Trump regarding the goals of Washington's war in Iran. In Washington, he emphasized:" "That's why we all hope that this war will end as soon as possible," DPA reported. He expressed hope that the Israeli and American militaries are doing the right thing so that a potential new government in Tehran can restore peace and freedom.
He no longer sounds so enthusiastic.
The most influential European leader took the risk of standing firmly on Washington's side in the early days of the conflict, while his colleagues such as Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and French President Emmanuel Macron condemned the US-Israeli strikes as illegal, Politico reports.
And now Merz is being forced to make a sharp U-turn as the economic and security implications of the war on the EU's largest economy become increasingly clear, and he has publicly expressed his concerns that Trump has no exit strategy to end the fighting in the Persian Gulf.
On Friday, during a visit to Norway, Merz spoke in his most critical tone yet. He said the war raised "serious security questions" and added: "It has a huge impact on our energy costs and has the potential to trigger large-scale migration."
"With every passing day, more questions arise than answers," the German chancellor told a news conference in Norway, where he was observing a NATO military exercise today with the prime ministers of Norway and Canada, Jonas Gahr Støre and Mark Carney.
"It is becoming increasingly clear that a convincing plan is needed first. A strategy is needed to end this war," Merz said. "We have no interest in an endless war," he added, warning that "the violation of Iran's territorial integrity, statehood and economic vitality will have serious consequences" for Western countries as well. "That's why we need a vision of a peaceful order now," he was quoted as saying by DPA.
This is a stark contrast to his stance during his visit to Washington in early March. Visiting Trump in the Oval Office, Merz expressed his support for Trump's military goals. He smiled flatteringly when the president boasted about the damage done to Iran by US air strikes and said Berlin fully agreed with Washington on the need to remove the dictatorship in Tehran.
But the chancellor no longer seems to be in a mood for smiles, as the aftermath of the war - now in its third week - increasingly threatens countless German and European interests. Merz's political isolation among key European allies and growing pressure from his center-left coalition partner - the Social Democratic Party (SPD) - have led the chancellor to take a tougher stance on the war in recent days.
Merz has increasingly feared that a war with Iran would deepen his country's huge economic problems - with Germany's already struggling manufacturing sector taking another hit from soaring energy prices. He also worries that it could slow down European efforts to end Russia's war in Ukraine and potentially trigger a new refugee crisis, just as he struggles to prevent the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party from becoming the country's most popular political force.
The German chancellor said on Friday during a visit to Norway that his country was not involved in a war with Iran, Reuters reported. "Germany is not part of this war in Iran and we don't want to be part of it," Merz said. When asked about the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, the chancellor said there was no reason to consider providing military protection for the sea lanes.
On the same day, Merz condemned the Trump administration's decision to ease oil sanctions against Russia in an attempt to lower global oil prices, fearing that the move would only serve to fill the Kremlin's military budget and sustain Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He called Washington's move "wrong".
"We want to ensure that Russia does not take advantage of the war in Iran to weaken Ukraine," Merz added.
"Endless war"?
Merz has been sending mixed messages about Iran since the US and Israel launched their attacks on February 28. The day after the first attack, Merz expressed doubts that they would succeed in toppling the regime in Tehran and warned of an Iraq-style quagmire. However, he said, Germany is not in a position to "lecture" its allies and supports their goal of regime change.
These mixed signals have even led to confusion about Germany's position in the Iranian government.
"We don't know what Germany's real position is," he told Politico Iranian Ambassador to Germany Majid Nili Ahmadabadi. "We hear different opinions from the government."
But Merz took a slightly harder line on the US and Israeli strikes last week, when, standing next to Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis in Berlin, he expressed concern that the US and Israel had no plan to end the conflict. "We have no interest in endless war," Merz said at the time.
The shift is due at least in part to growing pressure within the EU and within his own coalition government, with MPs from the centre-left SPD increasingly attacking Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) for its soft stance on Trump and the strikes on Iran.
"The CDU's position is losing ground," said René Repassi, a SPD member of the European Parliament. Repassi stressed that European Council President Antonio Costa's criticism of the US and Israeli strikes last week illustrated Berlin's isolation. "He knows that the majority of member states support him," Repassi said of Costa.
Last week, even Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni - a frequent Trump ally - joined a number of EU leaders in condemning the strikes on Iran as a violation of international law, ANSA reported. She said the current crisis in the Middle East was among the most complex in decades and that her government was not to blame for the consequences. Meloni, who maintains friendly relations with US President Donald Trump, reiterated her position that this was "an intervention in which Italy is not participating and in which it has no intention of participating."
Merz has not gone that far - and is unlikely to do so. But SPD politicians in Berlin say Merz's tougher rhetoric in recent days is at least partly due to the pressure they have exerted.
"There were several rounds of talks within the coalition during which we insisted very strongly that we must clearly reject this war," Adis Akhmetovic, foreign policy spokesman for the Social Democrats' parliamentary group, told Deutschlandfunk radio last week.
Economic and refugee fears
But Merz is also motivated by the economic risks of a prolonged war, especially given that Germany's energy-intensive manufacturing sector - which was already struggling before the war began - is particularly vulnerable to price spikes.
"The growth outlook is likely to continue to deteriorate," wrote Veronika Grimm, one of the country's leading economists, in an essay for the German newspaper "Handelsblatt". "For Germany, this means that hopes for a return to growth are being dashed again."
Germany is also expected to be among the hardest-hit countries in the EU if the escalating war in the Middle East triggers a new refugee crisis.
Germany would be the most popular destination for Iranians fleeing the war, with 28% of Iranians citing it as their most likely destination, according to a survey by the Berlin-based "Rockwool" foundation. This is largely due to the fact that Germany is already home to a large number of Iranian refugees.
These challenges come as Merz’s conservatives face a series of state elections in which growing concerns about the economy and the war abroad are playing a key role — and are contributing to the rise of the far right.
Given the growing risks, Merz said late last week that he would work to develop a plan to end the war through negotiations with the G7 and Israel.
"Germany is not a party to this war and we do not want to become one," Merz said. "And in this regard, all our efforts are aimed at ending the war."