Friedrich Merz has undergone a double-edged sword in his relationship with Donald Trump. A year ago, he presented himself as a harsh critic of the American president. Then came a long period of rapprochement - something his political opponents described as flattery. This phase culminated in Merz's visit to the White House about two weeks ago. There, the German Chancellor expressed understanding for the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, which also killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Merz simply did not want to lecture Trump on international law. But now the Chancellor is taking a step back – makes it clear that Trump is definitely going too far on Iran.
Merz: We will not participate
Will the Bundeswehr participate in guarding the Strait of Hormuz? This question stirred up spirits in Berlin on Monday, and the answer came that afternoon from the chancellor himself. "The United States and Israel did not consult us before this war. Regarding Iran, there was never a joint decision on whether to act. That is why the question of how Germany would get involved militarily in this matter is completely out of the question. We will not do it," said Merz.
Trump backed up his request with the warning that NATO faces a bleak future if it does not help secure the strait, which is important for oil transport. The German government refuted Trump on this issue as well: NATO's task is to defend the territory of the alliance, and as is known, the Strait of Hormuz does not fall into this category, a government spokesman emphasized.
This position was confirmed by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius: "This is not our war, we did not start it. We want diplomatic solutions and a quick conclusion, but sending more warships to the region is unlikely to contribute to this."
Pistorius also does not consider the expansion of the existing EU mission "Aspides", which was proposed by EU representatives, appropriate. This mission is aimed at securing the sea lanes in the Red Sea, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is completely different from a geopolitical and military point of view, he emphasized.
Energy prices are weighing on the economy
Now Merz is once again in confrontation with Trump. "With each passing day of the war, more and more questions arise. What worries us most is that there is clearly no common plan (between the US and Israel) for how this war can be brought to a convincing end," the chancellor said about ten days after the war began. An endless war is not in Germany's interest, he added, and warned of the long-term consequences for Europe - for example in the areas of security, energy supply and migration.
Above all, the significantly higher oil prices show how directly the war is affecting Germany. And this is precisely what is affecting Merz very strongly, for whom the restoration of the economy is currently his most important political goal. Even without the "war in Iran" factor, getting out of the recession costs enormous effort and is only possible thanks to taking on huge new debts. Companies are going bankrupt one after another, moving their operations abroad, unemployment is rising.
The Ifo Institute has already predicted how the war in Iran would affect the German economy. In any case, it will slow down the recovery and fuel inflation. If the war does end quickly, economic growth will fall by 0.2 percent, and if it continues for a longer period, this will mean lower growth of 0.4 percent. The growth forecast before the war was around 1 percent.
Merz in a double bind
Merz knows that the economic situation is likely to determine how successful his government will be, and the economy is also playing an important role in local elections in several federal states this year. After the vote in Baden-Württemberg in early March, where his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) narrowly lost to the Greens, elections are due in Rhineland-Palatinate on March 22, and in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in eastern Germany in September. According to surveys so far in the two eastern states, the "Alternative for Germany" (AfD), which is partly extremist, is leading by a large margin. It is in favor of ending sanctions against Russia, and the fact that Donald Trump now wants to ease sanctions in the energy sector to reduce pressure on prices plays into the AfD's favor in the election campaign.
This presents Chancellor Merz with a double dilemma: on the one hand, he wants to maintain sanctions against Moscow in order to continue to put pressure on Russia in the war in Ukraine, but at the same time, the majority of Germans expect the federal government to do something about high energy prices above all.
Polls also show that the population is categorically against Germany's involvement in the war in Iran. And this is the second dilemma for Merz, who wants to present himself as a reliable ally of the United States. After having built up good relations with Trump with great effort - and probably with a great deal of political self-denial - he now finds himself forced to back down again.
However, Merz is not the only one in Europe who refuses a military contribution. Britain and France, both with strong naval forces, have so far remained very cautious. Apparently, their willingness to follow the United States in a war started unilaterally by Trump is very low - as is the case with Germany.