The United States can certainly confirm the destruction of about a third of Iran's missile arsenal, despite nearly a month of joint US and Israeli strikes against the country, Reuters reports, citing US intelligence sources.
According to five people familiar with the situation, the fate of another third of the missiles remains unclear, with some believed to be damaged, destroyed or buried in underground tunnels and bunkers. The assessment of Iran's unmanned capabilities is similar, with approximately one-third of its stockpile also certain to have been destroyed.
Intelligence suggests that while a significant portion of the arsenal has been destroyed or temporarily unavailable, Tehran still has a significant missile capability and could recover some of the damaged or buried weapons after the end of hostilities.
This assessment contrasts with statements by President Donald Trump, who said that Iran has "very few missiles." At the same time, he acknowledged that even a minimal residual capability poses a serious threat, especially to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to "Reuters" The administration in Washington is also considering expanding the operation, including deploying US troops to coastal areas of Iran to protect the key energy corridor.
The US Central Command, which is leading Operation "Epic Fury", reports that the campaign is proceeding according to plan or even ahead of schedule. So far, more than 10,000 military targets have been struck, and according to official figures, 92% of the large ships of the Iranian fleet have been destroyed.
However, the Pentagon does not give an accurate estimate of Iran's remaining missile and drone capabilities. One reason is the lack of clear information about the initial size of the arsenal, which, according to various estimates, ranges between 2,500 and 6,000 missiles.
Meanwhile, Iran has demonstrated that it continues to have active combat capabilities. On Thursday alone, the country launched 15 ballistic missiles and 11 drones at targets in the United Arab Emirates, and earlier it struck the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean.
Analysts warn that Iran's underground infrastructure - a network of tunnels and bunkers - makes it significantly more difficult to assess and destroy its real military capabilities. Experts say the country probably retains about 30% of its missile capabilities, which remains a serious factor in the conflict.