According to experts and three sources familiar with the latest internal Defense Department assessments, the US military has significantly depleted its arsenal of key missiles during the war with Iran, creating a “short-term risk“ from reducing its arsenal in a future conflict, if one arises in the next few years, CNN reports.
The publication cites an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which found that in the last seven weeks of the war, the US military has used up at least 45% of its stockpile of precision missiles, at least half of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missiles designed to intercept ballistic missiles, and nearly 50% of its Patriot air defense interceptor missiles.
According to sources familiar with the assessment, these figures almost completely match the Pentagon's classified data on US stockpiles.
Earlier this year, the Pentagon awarded a number of contracts designed to expand missile production. However, according to experts and CSIS sources, the lead time for replacements for these systems is three to five years, even with increased production capacity.
“In the short term, the United States likely has enough bombs and missiles to continue combat operations against Iran in any scenario if the fragile ceasefire fails to hold,“ the article says.
However, as the CSIS analysis notes, the number of critical munitions remaining in the US stockpile is no longer sufficient to confront a comparable adversary like China.
It is expected to take years for stocks of these weapons to return to pre-war levels.
“The significant spending on munitions has created a period of heightened vulnerability in the Western Pacific. "It will take one to four years to replenish these stocks and several more years to bring them to the required level," retired Marine Corps Colonel Mark Cancian, one of the authors of the CSIS report, told the publication.
In a statement to CNN, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell noted that the military "has everything it needs to accomplish the missions at the time and place chosen by the president."
According to analytical data and information from sources, the US military has also used up approximately 30% of its stockpile of Tomahawk missiles, more than 20% of its stockpile of Joint Advanced Surface-to-Surface Missiles (JASSMs), and approximately 20% of its SM-3 and SM-6 missiles. It is noted that updating these systems will take approximately four to five years.
The publication notes that the statistics on missile stocks, indicating their depletion, sharply contradict the recent statement of President Donald Trump that the United States is not experiencing a shortage of any type of weapon.
This is despite the fact that the US president has requested additional funding for missiles due to the impact of the war with Iran on existing stocks.
“We want this for many reasons, even beyond those that we are talking about with Iran. Specifically, we have a lot of ammunition, but we are holding it back. It is a small price to pay to stay on top“, Trump said last month, referring to a request for additional funding from the Pentagon.
As the CSIS report notes, the Trump administration's recent agreements with private companies should facilitate the increase in production. However, deliveries of these key munitions will be relatively small in the near future due to the small nature of previous orders.
The publication recalls that even before the war began, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Kaine, and other military leaders warned Trump that a prolonged military campaign could affect US arms stocks - especially those intended to support Israel and Ukraine.
Since the beginning of the conflict, Democrats in Congress have expressed concern about the volume of munitions used and the impact that this could have on US defense in the Middle East and beyond.