Some Chinese internet users are calling for a lightning strike like the one in Venezuela to capture Taiwanese leaders as a prelude to taking over the island, but analysts, researchers and security officials say that the modernizing Chinese military is still far from ready for this, BTA reported, citing "Reuters".
In the person of Taiwan, they say, the Chinese military has an adversary who has been preparing for years for a "decapitation operation" of its leadership, in addition to having good air defense systems and radar capabilities – and likely with the support of the United States and its allies.
Although China has been purposefully modernizing its weapons for years, doubts remain whether the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has built the necessary capacity and command structure to turn it into a well-oiled battlefield machine.
"Once such an operation runs into problems, it will quickly escalate into a large-scale conflict with extremely high political and military risks," said Chen Kuan-ting, a lawmaker from Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party.
The island's multi-layered air defenses and early warning systems mean that any attempt at an air strike or special operation infiltration would risk being detected when crossing the Taiwan Strait, which would portend an escalation, he added.
The United States demonstrated its battle-tested air superiority of its forces with the operation last weekend to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. Their military controlled the airspace with stealth fighters, aircraft that jammed enemy defenses, and secret reconnaissance drones and satellites that provided commanders with real-time information.
In contrast, the KNOAA "still has obvious gaps in real-world experience in joint operations, electromagnetic and electronic warfare capabilities, and the capacity to accurately assess the combat situation in high-risk missions," Chen said. China's Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to questions faxed to Reuters.
China does not rule out using force to seize Taiwan
China, which claims Taiwan as its territory, does not rule out using force to bring the island under its control. Taipei rejects Beijing's claims.
"From an operational perspective, although the PLA has recently been trying to catch up in building interoperability between different branches and types of troops, these are still baby steps compared to the experience the Americans have accumulated over decades," said Colin Koh, a security researcher based in Singapore.
Taiwan is determined to defend its sovereignty and strengthen its defenses, President Lai Chinh-te said last month after Beijing fired missiles toward Taiwan as part of its latest military exercises. The maneuvers around the island - the largest to date - were accompanied by sharp messages from Chinese officials and military representatives.
"Any external force that tries to interfere in the Taiwan issue or China's internal affairs will surely smash its head against the iron wall of the Chinese People's Liberation Army", says a statement from the Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing.
In October, Lai unveiled a multi-layered air defense system called the "Taiwan Dome", or "T-Dome". It is designed as an analogue of the Israeli "Iron Dome", with a more effective mechanism for a higher hit rate, a "sensor-shooter" that integrates Taiwanese-made "Heavenly Bow" missiles. (Sky Bow) with HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems supplied by the US.
In July, the Taiwanese military held a drill to defend Taipei's main airport from enemy landings, deploying Stinger portable missile systems and tanks.
Maduro experience inspires some
While military attachés say China has been conducting war games that have tested a wide range of military options for taking control of Taiwan, including removing people from the island, some Chinese online users have pointed to US actions in Venezuela as inspiration.
“The situation in Venezuela has given us a solution for reunification with Taiwan,“ wrote a user on the microblog “Weibo”, a social network similar to “Ex”.
"First, we launch a special operation to arrest Lai Chin-te, then immediately declare the takeover of Taiwan, issue new identity cards, and achieve a swift and decisive victory." Chen, a member of the Taiwan parliament's foreign affairs and defense committee, dismissed such comments as "fantasy", while other analysts said any such attempt would quickly be confronted with harsh military reality.
China has adopted electronic warfare aircraft that are similar to Boeing"s EA-18G Growler and Northrop Grumman's E-2D Advanced Hawkeye command and early warning aircraft, but their exact capabilities remain a mystery, Koch said.
Because the ruling Communist Party still plays a role in the KNOAA's command structure, "doubts remain about its effectiveness," added Koch, who is at the S. Rajaratnam Institute of International Affairs in Singapore.
"Having a decentralized decision-making system is essential; "It allows field commanders to exercise the necessary initiative to deal with the dynamic, changing and uncertain nature of military operations as events unfold," Koh said.
Despite all the features of the KNOAA that are perceived as shortcomings, the Taiwanese leadership is not taking any risks.
"We have no right to underestimate them," said a senior Taiwanese security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because military matters are sensitive.
"After all, in the event of such a painful and shocking experience, China will also seek all possible ways to overcome these problems.“